Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook (October)

Beef/Cattle:   The forecast for second-half 2020 beef production was raised from last month on higher expected fed cattle and cow slaughter. As a result, the annual forecast for 2020 beef production was raised by 90 million pounds to 27.1 billion pounds. Beef production in 2021 was raised slightly on higher expected fed cattle marketings. August beef imports were 32 percent larger year over year on a continued strong demand for processing-grade beef. The forecast for beef imports was raised for both 2020 and 2021. U.S. beef exports in August 2020 were up 2 percent. No changes were made to the 2020 forecast for beef exports, but the 2021 forecast was lowered on a revised global outlook.

Dairy: From the week ending September 5 to the week ending October 3, all major dairy product wholesale prices reported in the USDA National Products Sales Report increased significantly. The price difference between 40-pound blocks of Cheddar cheese and 500-pound barrels reached a record high. The all-milk price forecast for 2020 is $18.00 per hundredweight (cwt), an increase from last month’s forecast of $17.75. For 2021, the all-milk price forecast is $17.60 per cwt, an increase from last month’s forecast of $17.00.

Pork/Hogs: Producer-supplied responses detailed in the September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report suggest that the U.S. pork sector is reacting cautiously to the turbulent market conditions of 2020. Pork production is revised higher in 2021 to 28.5 billion pounds, up 1.3 percent, to reflect a slow industry rebound. 2020 exports are reduced by 200 million pounds to 7.3 billion pounds. 2021 exports are reduced 300 million pounds to 7.4 billion pounds. Both reductions are made in anticipation of continuing weak demand in major importing countries. 2020 per capita disappearance is expected to be 51.3 pounds. Next year, disappearance is expected to be 51.6 retail pounds of pork per capita.

Poultry/Eggs: The third-quarter broiler production forecast was increased on August data, and the 2021 forecast was increased to reflect the revision to 2020. The broiler export forecast was increased on expectations for improving global demand. The fourth-quarter broiler price forecast was unchanged, while the 2021 price forecast was decreased on expectations for continued weak demand and abundant supplies. The table egg production forecast was unchanged, while the fourth-quarter price forecast was increased to reflect expectations for strong demand. The second-half export forecast was increased on expectations for continued firm overseas demand. The third-quarter turkey production forecast was adjusted up based on recent slaughter data. Turkey export forecasts were increased to 550 million pounds in 2020 and 570 million pounds in 2021. Turkey import forecasts were raised on August trade data. The average price for turkey in the third quarter was 111.3 cents per pound, and the fourth quarter forecast was increased to 112 cents. Forecast turkey prices for the first half of 2021 were also increased.

January-August 2020 Live Cattle Imports Larger Than in Same Period Last Year, Hog Imports Flat

January-August 2020 imports of live cattle totaled 1.4 million head, 3.8 percent larger than the same period a year ago. Cattle for immediate slaughter, which accounted for about 25 percent of total imports and originate mostly from Canada, increased 6.7 percent compared with a year ago. Lower Canadian fed steer prices likely served as an incentive to import Canadian animals into the United States. U.S. imports of feeder cattle increased 2.8 percent in the January-August period this year. This category accounted for about 74 percent of cattle imports. Most of these animals originated from Mexico. The lower-valued Mexican peso likely incentivized U.S. cattle feeders to import Mexican feeder animals. January-August 2020 imports of live hogs-almost all of which originate from Canada-totaled about 3.4 million head, down fractionally from a year ago. Finishing animals have made up about 84 percent of 2020 swine imports, with hogs for immediate slaughter accounting for about 15 percent of total imports. While impor s of finishing animals were down 1.4 percent in the January-August period, imports of hogs for immediate slaughter increased almost 5 percent, likely due to increased slaughter capacity in Midwestern States.

Source:  Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook  (ERS/USDA)

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