WASDE: Wheat Outlook
The 2023/24 U.S. all wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month with offsetting by-class changes on exports. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is also unchanged at $7.50 per bushel.
The 2023/24 global wheat outlook lowers supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. Supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. If realized, this would be the first year-to-year decline in global wheat production since 2018/19. Australia is reduced 3.0 million tons to 26.0 million as dry weather this past month in Western Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland lowers yield prospects. Canada is decreased 2.0 million tons to 31.0 million on the initial model-based forecast by Statistics Canada for the 2023/24 crop, indicating lower yields from last year arising from dry conditions across the Prairies.
Despite smaller global supplies, world consumption is nearly unchanged with decreased Food, Seed, and Industrial use mostly offset by increased feed and residual use. Feed and residual use is raised by 1.0 million tons for both China and the EU due to wet weather during harvest that is expected to result in higher amounts of lower-quality wheat used for feed. Global trade is trimmed 2.1 million tons to 207.3 million as reductions for Australia, Canada, and the EU are only partly offset by increases for Russia and Kazakhstan. World ending stocks are reduced 7.0 million tons to 258.6 million and would be the lowest since 2015/16. Ending stocks are tightened in many countries this month, particularly for several major wheat exporters.