WASDE: Wheat Outlook

The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks.

WASDE:  Wheat Outlook

The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks.  Supplies are lowered on reduced wheat production and beginning stocks.  All wheat production is lowered 152 million bushels to 1,746 million.  The all wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, down 4.9 bushels from last month.  The NASS July Crop Production report provides survey-based production forecasts for all wheat classes for the first time in the 2021/22 crop year.  The production forecasts for durum and other spring wheat indicated a significant decline compared to last year for these two classes due to the severe drought conditions affecting the Northern Plains.  Partially offsetting this decrease is higher winter wheat production, both on increased harvested acreage and a higher yield.  Imports are raised 20 million bushels to 145 million.  Beginning stocks are reduced on the latest NASS Grain Stocks report, which indicated lower 2020/2021 ending stocks than previously estimated.  

Projected exports and feed and residual usage are lowered to 875 and 170 million bushels, respectively, on the reduction in durum and other spring wheat supplies.  These would be the smallest U.S. wheat exports since the 2015/16 marketing year.  Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 105 million bushels to 665 million and are the lowest since 2013/14.  The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $6.60.  

The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, fractionally lower consumption, increased trade, and lower ending stocks.  Supplies are projected to decline 5.3 million tons to 1,082.6 million on reduced beginning stocks in several countries and lower U.S. production not offsetting higher foreign production.  Global production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 792.4 million but still remains at a record.  Australia’s production is raised 1.5 million tons to 28.5 million, based on continued widespread precipitation benefiting emergence and crop establishment.  Russia’s production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 85.0 million.  Winter wheat production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 64.0 million on decreased harvested area from a damaging early spring freeze more than offsetting higher yields on continued favorable conditions across Western Russia.  Spring wheat is also lowered 0.5 million tons to 21.0 million on reduced yields with hot and dry conditions affecting the spring wheat region of Central Russia.  Kazakhstan is lowered 1.0 million tons to 13.0 million on similar unfavorable conditions.  The EU and United Kingdom are increased a combined 1.4 million tons to 138.2 and 14.8 million, respectively on continued favorable conditions across Northern and Central Europe.

Projected 2021/22 world consumption is fractionally lower at 790.9 million on lower feed and residual use in Russia, the United States, and Kazakhstan mostly being offset by higher food, seed, and industrial use in several countries.  Projected 2021/22 global trade is raised 0.8 million tons to a record 204.0 million, on increased exports by the EU, Ukraine, and Australia offsetting reductions in Canada, Kazakhstan, and the United States.  Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are lowered 5.1 million tons to 291.7 million but remain above last year.