WASDE:  Wheat Outlook

The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.  Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, issued June 30, which indicated higher 2019/20 ending stocks than previously estimated.  This also resulted in lowering 2019/20 feed and residual use by 61 million bushels to 74 million.  Wheat production for 2020/21 is reduced 53 million bushels to 1,824 million.  Winter wheat production is lowered 48 million bushels to 1,218 million with reductions in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter.  The initial 2020/21 survey-based production forecasts for other spring and Durum were issued this month by NASS.  Other spring wheat is less than last year at 550 million bushels on lower forecast yields while Durum is higher at 56 million on increased harvested area.  Domestic use is 10 million bushels lower this month, all on reduced feed and residual use as 2020/21 U.S. corn supplies are still projected significantly larger than last year.  Projected 2020/21 exports are unchanged at 950 million bushels but there were several offsetting by-class changes this month.  Ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected 17 million bushels higher than last month at 942 million.  The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $4.60 per bushel, compared to the revised 2019/20 SAFP of $4.58.

The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for smaller supplies, reduced consumption, lower exports, and decreased stocks.  Supplies are reduced 2.9 million tons to 1,066 million as larger beginning stocks are more than offset by reduced production, primarily in the EU, United States, Morocco, and Russia.  EU production is lowered 1.5 million tons to 139.5 million, mainly on reductions for France and Spain.  If realized, this would be the smallest EU wheat production since 2012/13.  Morocco is lowered 800,000 tons to 2.7 million, the smallest output since 2007/08, primarily on updated government estimates.  Russia is reduced 500,000 tons to 76.5 million as lower winter wheat production is partially offset by increased spring wheat output.  Projected 2020/21 global trade is reduced 0.8 million tons to 188.0 million as lower EU exports are only partially offset by higher Australian exports.  World consumption is lowered 1.6 million tons to 751.6 million, primarily on reduced feed and residual use in the EU, the United States, and Morocco.  Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 1.3 million tons to 314.8 million but remain record-large with China and India accounting for 51 and 10 percent of the total, respectively.  


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