WASDE:  Wheat Outlook

The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks.  Supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels, on the combination of lower beginning stocks and production as indicated by the NASS Grains Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports, respectively.  Partly offsetting are lower imports, with all the reduction for Durum.  Domestic use is raised 10 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use.  The NASS Grain Stocks report indicated greater first quarter disappearance than previously estimated.  Exports remain at 975 million bushels due to offsetting by-class changes.  Projected ending stocks are reduced by 42 million bushels to 883 million, which would be the lowest ending stocks in six years.  The season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $4.70 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, greater exports, and higher stocks.  Supplies are raised 2.2 million tons to 1,072.5 million, mostly on Russia’s production increasing 5.0 million tons to 83.0 million, which is the second-largest crop on record, following 2017/18.  The increased production is based on updated harvest results as reported by Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture, which imply record-high spring wheat yields.  Russia’s increased production more than offsets reductions in Ukraine, Canada, Argentina, and the United States.  Ukraine’s production is lowered 1.5 million tons to 25.5 million, based on Ukraine’s State Statistics Service estimates.  Canada’s production is reduced 1.0 million tons to 35.0 million, primarily on the updated Statistics Canada forecast issued September 14.  Argentina’s production is lowered 0.5 million tons to 19.0 million on continued dry conditions in some regions.  World consumption is increased fractionally to 751.0 million tons, primarily on higher feed and residual usage for Russia and greater food, seed, and industrial use in Pakistan and EU more than offsetting lower feed and residual use for Ukraine and Canada.  Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 0.5 million tons to 189.9 million on higher exports for Russia more than offsetting reductions for Argentina and Ukraine.  Russia’s exports are raised 1.5 million tons to 39.0 million, which are the second highest on record.  The largest import changes this month are for China and Pakistan, each raised 0.5 million tons.  China’s imports are raised on a strong early pace and are now 7.5 million tons, making China the third largest global importer for 2020/21.  Pakistan imports are now 1.5 million tons, raising stocks which have been relatively tight recently.  Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are raised 2.1 million tons to 321.5 million to a new record, with Russia accounting for most of the increase this month.  

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