WASDE: Wheat Outlook
The 2022/23 U.S. outlook this month is for increased supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher beginning stocks as reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use is raised 30 million bushels to 80 million based on higher second-quarter implied disappearance based on the Grain Stocks report. Seed use is raised 3 million bushels to 69 million, reflecting larger than expected winter wheat plantings reported in today’s NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel.
The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. World supplies are raised 1.3 million tons to 1,058.1 million on production increases in Ukraine and the EU. World consumption for 2022/23 is raised by 0.2 million tons to 789.7 million as higher feed and residual use for the United States more than offsets a decline for Ukraine. Projected 2022/23 global trade is increased 0.8 million tons to 211.6 million as increases for the EU and Ukraine more than offset a decline for India. EU and Ukraine exports are raised 0.5 million tons each to 36.5 and 13.0 million respectively on higher exportable supplies. Projected 2022/23 global ending stocks are raised 1.1 million tons to 268.4 million, with increases for the EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and India more than offsetting declines in Saudi Arabia and Iran.