WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

The 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month, with lower beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are down 50 million bushels reflecting a forecast increase in exports for 2024/25. Exports are raised 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April, inspection data during the month of May, and current outstanding sales. With no use changes for 2025/26, ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.20 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 1.2 million tons higher to 1.551 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production and trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher with an increase for India. Foreign barley production is up slightly, reflecting increases for the EU and Argentina that are partly offset by a decline for Syria. 

Major global trade changes for 2025/26 include larger barley exports for Argentina. For 2024/25, corn exports are lowered for Argentina but raised for the United States and Canada. Corn imports are lowered for China and Canada with increases for Turkey, Indonesia, and Iraq. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are reduced, with cuts to China, South Africa, India, and Canada partially offset by an increase for Argentina. Global corn ending stocks, at 275.2 million tons, are down 2.6 million.