WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

The 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks.

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

The 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks.  The corn crop is projected at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up more than 10 percent from last year on increases to both area and yield.  The yield projection of 181.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2022 time period.  With beginning stocks up slightly, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.7 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18.

Total U.S. corn use for 2023/24 is forecast to rise about 5 percent relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports.  Food, seed, and industrial use is projected to rise 55 million bushels to 6.7 billion.  Corn used for ethanol is projected to increase 1 percent, based on expectations of modest growth in motor gasoline consumption and ethanol’s inclusion rate into gasoline.  Feed and residual use is projected higher on a larger crop and lower expected prices.

U.S. corn exports for 2023/24 are forecast to rise 325 million bushels to 2.1 billion, as lower prices support a sharp increase in global trade following the decline seen during 2022/23.  U.S. market share is expected to increase slightly albeit remain below the average of the past 5 years.  Exports are higher for Argentina and Brazil, with the former reflecting a return to normal weather conditions after a drought during 2022/23.  Despite a rebound in U.S. exports, Brazil is forecast to be the world’s largest exporter of corn for the second consecutive year.  Exports for Ukraine are projected to decline based on lower production prospects.

With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2023/24 ending stocks are up 805 million bushels from last year and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2016/17.  Stocks would represent 15.3 percent of use, the highest since 2018/19.  The season-average farm price is projected at $4.80 per bushel, down $1.80 from 2022/23.

The global coarse grain outlook for 2023/24 is for record production and use, and larger ending stocks.  World corn production is forecast record high, with the largest increases for the United States, Argentina, the EU, China, and Serbia.  Partly offsetting are smaller crops projected for Ukraine and Brazil.  World corn use is expected to rise about 4 percent, with foreign consumption increasing by a similar amount.  With lower prices, world corn imports are forecast to grow just over 5 percent, driven by increases for several countries, including China, Egypt, Vietnam, Algeria, Mexico, and Colombia.  Partly offsetting are reductions for the EU and Turkey.  Global corn ending stocks are up 15.5 million tons to 312.9 million, mostly reflecting larger stocks for the United States that are partly offset by declines for Brazil and China.