WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook
This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for greater production, increased corn used for ethanol, and marginally lower ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.062 billion bushels, up 43 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to a record 177.0 bushels per acre. Corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels, based on September data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of October. With use rising slightly more than supply, corn ending stocks are lowered 7 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 5.1 million tons higher to 1,499.0 million. This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade, and higher stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Argentina, the EU, and several African countries more than offset a decline for the Philippines. For Argentina, production is raised mostly reflecting increased area expectations for late-planted corn. Corn production in the EU is higher based on increases for Poland, Romania, and France. Foreign barley production is lowered based on declines for Turkey, the EU, Russia, and Ukraine.
Corn exports are raised for Argentina and the EU but lowered for Bangladesh. Corn imports are raised for Iran and Thailand but lowered for Nigeria and Turkey. For 2020/21, corn exports for Argentina are raised but reduced for Brazil for the local marketing year beginning March 2021, based on shipments observed through October. For 2021/22, barley imports are raised for China and Turkey but reduced for Saudi Arabia. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher relative to last month, reflecting increases for China, Brazil, Burkina Faso, and Angola. Global corn ending stocks, at 304.4 million tons, are up 2.7 million.