WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, smaller feed and residual use, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and tighter ending stocks.

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, smaller feed and residual use, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and tighter ending stocks.  Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 5 million bushels lower based on essentially offsetting export and corn used for ethanol changes for 2021/22.  Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, down 415 million from last month on reductions to harvested area and yield.  The national average yield is forecast at 172.5 bushels per acre, down 2.9 bushels.  Harvested area for grain is forecast at 80.8 million acres, down 1.0 million.  Total U.S. corn use is cut 250 million bushels to 14.3 billion.  Feed and residual use is lowered 100 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices.  Exports are cut 100 million bushels to 2.3 billion while corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million to 5.3 billion.  With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 169 million bushels to 1.2 billion.  The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $6.75 per bushel.  

This month’s 2022/23 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, higher trade, and increased stocks relative to last month.  Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, Ukraine, Canada, and Mozambique more than offsetting reductions for the EU and Serbia.  China corn production is raised as abundant rainfall in key Northeast provinces and the North China Plain boost yield prospects.  Ukraine corn production is raised with an increase in yield expectations while Canada is higher based on greater indicated area.  EU corn production is lowered based on reductions for France, Romania, and Germany.  Foreign barley production is higher with larger production in Russia and Australia more than offsetting a decline for Syria.  

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2022/23 include larger corn exports for Ukraine but a reduction for the United States.  Corn imports are lowered for Canada and Vietnam.  Foreign corn ending stocks are raised 2.2 million tons to 273.6 million, mostly reflecting increases for China and India that are partially offset by declines for Ukraine, the EU, and Thailand.  World corn ending stocks at 304.5 million tons, are down 2.2 million.