WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 170 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels per acre. With larger supplies, feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion and corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.3 billion. Exports are raised 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast up 4.8 million tons to 1,499.3 million.  This month’s 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Ukraine, Russia, Burma, and Paraguay are partly offset by declines for Mexico, Egypt, and Indonesia. Corn production for Ukraine and Russia is raised based on harvest results to date. Mexico production is lowered reflecting a reported decline in summer corn area. Foreign barley production is raised as higher production for Russia, Ukraine, and India are partly offset by reductions for Argentina, the EU, and Turkey.

Major global trade changes include larger corn exports for the United States, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Paraguay. Corn imports are raised for Canada, Egypt, Mexico, the EU, and Saudi Arabia but lowered for Iran and Bangladesh. Barley exports are raised for Ukraine but lowered for Argentina. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, Paraguay, and China that are partly offset by a decline for Iran. Global corn ending stocks, at 315.0 million tons, are up 2.6 million.