WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production, food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), feed and residual use, exports, and ending stocks.

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production, food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), feed and residual use, exports, and ending stocks.  Corn production is estimated at 13.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is more than offset by a 1.6 million acre cut to harvested area.  Total corn use is reduced 185 million bushels to 13.915 billion.  Exports are reduced 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, and the lowest level of outstanding sales as of early January since the 2019/20 marketing year.  FSI use is lowered 10 million bushels, with reductions in corn used for starch and glucose and dextrose.  Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels to 5.275 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report.  With supply falling more than use, 2022/23 corn stocks are lowered 15 million bushels.  The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast down 7.3 million tons to 1,446.4 million.  This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater trade, and reduced stocks.  Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil partly offset by an increase for China.  Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting declines to both area and yield, as heat and dryness during December and into early January reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas.  Brazil corn production for 2022/23 is cut reflecting dry conditions for first-crop corn in parts of southern Brazil.  China corn production is higher based on the latest area and yield data from the National Bureau of Statistics.  Barley production is raised for the United Kingdom but lowered for Ukraine.

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2022/23 include increased corn exports for Ukraine and reductions for Argentina and the United States.  For 2021/22, Argentina’s exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2022 are lowered based on observed shipments to date, while Brazil is raised.  Corn imports for 2022/23 are lowered for Vietnam and Peru.  China’s corn feed and residual use is raised based on a larger crop and lower sorghum imports.  Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting reductions for Ukraine, Brazil, Pakistan, and Paraguay with a partly offsetting increase for China.  Global corn stocks, at 296.4 million tons, are down 2.0 million.