WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook
This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are lowered 25 million bushels, based on greater feed and residual use for 2020/21 as indicated in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production for 2021/22 is forecast 175 million bushels higher based on greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The national average corn yield is unchanged at 179.5 bushels per acre. During June, harvested-area weighted precipitation for the major corn producing states was below normal but did not represent an extreme deviation from the 1988 to 2020 average. For much of the crop the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July and USDA will provide its first survey-based corn yield forecast of the season in the August 12 Crop Production report.
Total U.S. corn use for 2021/22 is forecast 75 million bushels higher with increases for feed and residual use and exports. Feed and residual use is raised reflecting a larger crop. Corn exports are raised 50 million bushels, with sharply lower exports expected for Brazil. With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 75 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $5.60 per bushel.
This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and use, larger trade, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher, with a projected increase for Russia based on higher indicated area. Barley production is raised for Australia but lowered for Canada, the EU, Russia, Kazakhstan, and India. For 2020/21, foreign corn production is lowered, with reductions for Brazil and Paraguay more than offsetting an increase for Argentina. Major global trade changes for 2021/22 include larger corn exports for the United States and Russia with a reduction for Mexico. Corn imports are lowered for the EU and Iran. For 2020/21, corn exports are raised for Argentina but lowered for Brazil for the local marketing year beginning March 2021. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are virtually unchanged from last month.