WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, larger exports, and reduced ending stocks.  Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 are 52 million bushels lower based on the Grain Stocks report.  Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 17 million from last month on a 0.2-bushel increase in yield to 183.8 bushels per acre.  Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million acres.  Total use is raised slightly to 15.0 billion bushels reflecting greater exports.  With supply falling and use rising, ending stocks are cut 58 million bushels to 2.0 billion.  The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.  

Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 2.3 million tons lower to 1.500 billion.  This month’s 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, smaller trade, and essentially unchanged stocks relative to last month.  Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Ukraine, Egypt, Russia, and the Philippines partially offset by an increase for India.  Ukraine and Russia are lowered based on harvest results to date.  India is higher as a reduction in area is more than offset by a higher yield forecast.  Foreign barley production is down with cuts for Russia, the EU, and United Kingdom partly offset by increases for Argentina and India.  

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2024/25 include lower corn exports for Ukraine and Russia with an increase for the United States.  Corn imports are reduced for China and Iran but raised for Egypt and the Philippines.  Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced slightly to 255.8 million tons, mostly reflecting a reduction for China that is partly offset by increases for Argentina and Mexico.  World corn ending stocks, at 306.5 million tons, are down 1.8 million.