National Drought Monitor

During the late week and weekend, a large severe weather outbreak brought large hail, damaging winds and numerous intense tornadoes to parts of the central and southern Great Plains and Midwest. The storm systems responsible for the severe weather outbreak also brought widespread moderate and heavy rain amounts to the central U.S., leading to widespread improvements in drought and abnormally dry conditions. To the southwest of the heavy rainfall, in northwest Oklahoma and southwest and central Kansas, severe drought expanded as flash drought continued to take hold during a very dry late winter and early-mid spring, leading to reports of very poor wheat conditions and dust storms. Recent dry weather over the last month, combined with a mostly dry week, led to the development of more areas of abnormal dryness and moderate drought over scattered parts of the Southeast, Tennessee and southeast Kentucky. Conditions mostly remained unchanged in the western U.S., though a few improvements occurred in Colorado and Utah after recent precipitation, while conditions worsened in parts of southeast Montana and the Black Hills region of South Dakota and adjacent northeast Wyoming amid recent dry weather. Heavy rains in the northeast part of Puerto Rico eased drought and abnormal dryness there as streamflows improved and crop stress lessened.

Northeast

Weather in the Northeast this week was mostly dry, though a few areas in the northwest part of the region saw 0.50-1 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. Generally, the southwest part of the region was warmer than normal, while northern and eastern New England were colder than normal. Warmer-than-normal areas were mostly 2-6 degrees above normal, while colder-than-normal locations were mostly 2-6 degrees below normal. The Northeast remained free of drought this week, and abnormal dryness was removed from Nantucket, where groundwater levels continued to recover this week.

Southeast

Aside from parts of northern Alabama, weather in the Southeast this week was mostly dry. Temperatures in the region were mostly within 4 degrees of normal, with warmer-than-normal temperatures being most common in Alabama and Virginia. As short-term precipitation deficits grew this week and streamflow lessened, abnormal dryness grew in coverage in northeast Alabama, northern Georgia and parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. A separate area of degradation occurred in central to southern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where short-term moderate drought developed and abnormal dryness expanded amid dry recent weather, high evaporative demand and locally decreasing streamflow. Officials in Brevard County, Florida, noted several recent brush fires and expressed concern for more as short-term dryness and drought continued.

South

Weather conditions varied widely across the South region this week, with heavy rain falling in parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana, while other areas were left mostly or completely dry. Temperatures were mostly warmer than normal across the region, especially in Oklahoma and Texas, where weekly readings came in 4-8 degrees above normal, with a few local readings even warmer than that. A few spots in central Texas and the Trans-Pecos region saw improvements to drought or abnormally dry conditions after recent rainfall. In eastern and parts of northern Oklahoma, recent heavy rainfall led to improving conditions. Meanwhile in Tennessee, short-term dryness continued, leading to the expansion of moderate drought and abnormal dryness in eastern Tennessee and the expansion of abnormal dryness in western parts of the state. Flash drought continued to worsen in parts of northwest Oklahoma and adjacent portions of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, where severe drought expanded amid quickly drying soils and growing short-term precipitation deficits.

Midwest

Wetter weather occurred in most of the Midwest region this week. Aside from far eastern Kentucky and eastern Ohio, most areas saw at least half an inch of rain. Much heavier amounts occurred in parts of the region, especially in Missouri, where rainfall totals mostly ranged from 2 to 5 inches, with some embedded higher amounts. Widespread improvements to ongoing drought occurred in Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri, with a few areas of two-category improvements occurring in west-central Missouri where some of the highest rainfall amounts fell. While beneficial, lighter rain amounts farther east in Wisconsin and northern Michigan were mostly not enough to warrant improvements, given significant long-term dryness.

High Plains

Moderate to heavy precipitation fell across much of the High Plains region this week, excluding central and southwest Kansas and northeast Wyoming and southeast Colorado. Mostly warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred in Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming and the western Dakotas, while elsewhere, temperatures were mostly within a couple degrees of normal. While the storms responsible for the rain brought damaging hail and tornadoes in parts of the region, the rainfall helped to alleviate drought conditions in many areas. Eastern Kansas and Nebraska saw improvements in some areas, with parts of southeast Kansas seeing two-category improvements in the areas of heaviest rainfall. Meanwhile, in tandem with severe drought expansion in northwest Oklahoma, severe drought conditions expanded in central and southwest Kansas after another mostly dry week. Flash drought conditions in this region have led to dust storms and very poor wheat conditions.

West

Weather conditions were variable across the West this week. Precipitation amounts from 0.5 to 2 inches (locally higher) fell in western parts of Washington and Oregon. Elsewhere, precipitation amounts varied from none to locally up to 2 inches, especially in some high-elevation areas. Temperatures were mostly near normal or a couple degrees below normal in Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona and western New Mexico, while near-normal or warmer-than-normal temperatures prevailed elsewhere. Drought conditions remained mostly unchanged across the region. In northeast Utah, abnormal dryness and moderate drought were reduced in coverage after recent wet weather and low evaporative demand. In southeast Montana, moderate drought grew in coverage as short-term precipitation deficits grew alongside decreasing streamflow and soil moisture.

Looking Ahead

Between the evening of Wednesday, May 1 (time of writing), and the evening of Monday, May 6, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is forecasting moderate to heavy rain amounts from central Texas and northern Louisiana northward into the mid-Missouri and upper-Mississippi River valleys. In this region, rainfall amounts are forecast to range from a half inch to locally as high as 3 inches, especially in parts of Oklahoma, Texas and northern Louisiana. Similar precipitation amounts are also forecast in western Washington and Oregon, while some precipitation exceeding 1 inch is also forecast in parts of the northern Sierra Nevada. Mostly dry weather is forecast for eastern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, southwest Nevada, southern California and deep south Texas.

For May 7-11, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s forecast favors colder-than-normal weather across much of the western U.S., with the highest confidence for colder-than-normal weather centered over Idaho and northern Nevada. Warmer-than-normal weather is expected in much of the southeast half of the contiguous U.S., especially from Texas northeast to the mid-Atlantic. Above-normal precipitation is favored in the northern U.S., especially eastern Montana, while below-normal precipitation is favored in coastal California, southern New Mexico and southern and western Texas, southeast Louisiana and most of Florida.

During the May 7-11 period, colder-than-normal temperatures are favored in southwest, south-central and southeast Alaska, and across all of Hawaii. All of Alaska is favored to receive above-normal precipitation, with confidence highest outside of the far west and northwest. With the exception of the Big Island, the forecast slightly favors above-normal precipitation in Hawaii.