WASDE: Oilseed Outlook
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2023/24 include lower beginning stocks, production, crush, exports, and ending stocks.
WASDE: Oilseed Outlook
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2023/24 include lower beginning stocks, production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect an increase for exports in 2022/23. Soybean production is projected at 4.1 billion bushels, down 59 million with higher harvested area offset by a lower yield. Harvested area is raised 0.1 million acres from the August forecast. The soybean yield of 50.1 bushels per acre is down 0.8 bushels from last month. The soybean crush forecast is reduced 10 million bushels and the export forecast is reduced 35 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $380 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 1.0 cent to 63.0 cents per pound. Other changes this month include higher peanut and lower cottonseed production.
Foreign 2023/24 oilseed production is reduced 1.0 million tons to 538.7 million mainly on lower rapeseed production for Canada and the EU, lower sunflowerseed production for the EU, and lower cottonseed production for India. Partly offsetting is higher sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed production for Ukraine. The canola crop for Canada is lowered 0.8 million tons to 18.2 million, reflecting recent government reports and drought conditions in the southwestern Prairies during the growing season.
Global 2023/24 soybean crush is reduced 1.8 million tons to 327.7 million on lower crush for Argentina, Pakistan, the EU, Thailand, and the United States. Argentina’s crush is reduced 1.8 million tons to 34.5 million on lower expected supplies over the next several months prior to next year’s harvest. China’s crush is raised 1.0 million tons to 96.0 million in line with higher crush and domestic soybean meal demand in the prior marketing year.
Global soybean exports are reduced 0.4 million tons to 168.4 million as lower U.S. exports are partly offset by higher shipments from Brazil and Ukraine. Imports are reduced for Pakistan, Thailand, the EU, and Indonesia. Conversely, China’s imports for 2022/23 and 2023/24 are increased on higher crush demand and large shipments from Brazil that are expected to continue into the next marketing year. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million.