WASDE: Oilseed Outlook
U.S. oilseed production for 2021/22 is projected at 130.5 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month, with increases for sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed partly offset with a reduction for canola. Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, unchanged from last month. Harvested area, forecast at 86.7 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is unchanged from last month but up 4.4 million from last year. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 50.8 bushels per acre. Soybean supply and use forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Soybean changes for 2020/21 include lower imports, crush, and exports. With offsetting changes in supply and use, ending stocks are unchanged at 135 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $11.05 per bushel, down $0.20 as early-season sales at lower prices continue to weigh on the season-average forecast. The soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month. The soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents.
The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, crush, and ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is raised 2.5 million tons to 635.4 million, with higher sunflowerseed, rapeseed, cottonseed, and peanuts partly offset by lower soybean output. Russian sunflowerseed production is increased 2.0 million tons to 16.5 million, mainly on higher area shown in government planting progress reports. Australian rapeseed production is raised on beneficial early-season rainfall and higher area. Canadian canola production is lowered as early-season drought conditions impact yields and offset an increase to area. Canada’s soybean production is also lowered based on lower area.
The 2021/22 global soybean ending stocks are increased 1.9 million tons to 94.5 million as higher stocks for Brazil and Argentina are partly offset by lower Chinese stocks. The stocks revisions reflect notable balance sheet changes for Brazil and Argentina in 2020/21 and China in 2020/21 and 2021/22. Exports for Brazil and Argentina for 2020/21 are reduced as high prices lead to lower shipments to China. China’s imports are reduced 2 million tons to 98 million and 1 million tons to 102 million for 2020/21 and 2021/22, respectively. Another notable oilseed change includes a 0.3-million-ton reduction to 18.2 million for Malaysian 2020/21 palm oil production.