WASDE: Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook
The forecast for 2020 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month. The beef production forecast is raised primarily on higher cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights. USDA will release the Cattle report on July 24, providing a mid-year estimate of U.S. cattle inventory as well as producer intentions regarding retention of heifers for beef cow replacement. Forecast pork production is raised from last month largely on higher expected second-half commercial hog slaughter. Broiler production is raised on recent hatchery data while turkey production is lowered on recent production and hatchery data. Egg production is lowered from last month on a reduced laying flock and a reduction in eggs per layer.
For 2021, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised as higher expected beef, pork, and broiler production more than offsets lower forecast turkey production. Forecast beef production is raised from the previous month as higher expected placements in late 2020 and early 2021 will result in higher marketings. The pork production forecast is raised as the sector continues to adjust to the effects of COVID-19. Broiler production is raised from last month while turkey and egg production forecasts are reduced.
The beef import forecast is raised for 2020, but the export forecast is lowered from the previous month on recent trade data. The 2021 beef trade forecasts are unchanged from last month. Pork export forecasts for 2020 and 2021 are raised from last month as international demand is expected to remain robust. The 2020 broiler export forecast is reduced on recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2021 forecast. Turkey export forecasts are lowered for 2020 and 2021 on weak import demand from key trading partners.
Cattle price forecasts for 2020 are lowered from last month on prices to date and continued large supplies of fed cattle. Forecast 2021 cattle prices are unchanged. The 2020 hog price forecast is reduced on current price weakness and supply pressure. The 2021 hog price forecast is also reduced on higher hog supplies. Broiler prices for 2020 are raised fractionally on slightly higher second-quarter prices; no change is made to the 2021 broiler price. Turkey price forecasts for 2020 and 2021 are raised as production is reduced. The 2020 egg price forecast is reduced on current price weakness, but the 2021 egg price forecast is unchanged.
The milk production forecast for 2020 is lowered from last month largely on slower growth in milk per cow. However, the 2021 milk production forecast is raised from last month on expectations of dairy herd rebuilding and a recovery in growth in milk per cow. USDA’s Cattle report, to be released on July 24, will provide a mid-year estimate of the dairy cow inventory and producer intentions regarding retention of heifers for dairy cow replacement.
For 2020, the fat basis import forecast is raised from the previous month on higher imports of butter, while the fat basis export forecast is raised on increased shipments of cheese and butterfat products. The skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged from the previous month, but the export forecast is raised on higher expected exports of dry skim milk products and lactose. Price forecasts for cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk are raised from the previous month on recent price strength and anticipated demand strength. The whey price forecast is lowered from last month. Class III and Class IV milk prices are raised for 2020, and the all milk price forecast is raised to $18.25 per cwt.
For 2021, the fat basis import and export forecasts are raised. The skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged, but the export forecast is raised on strong international demand for skim milk powder. For 2021, cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk price forecasts are raised from the previous month while the whey price is unchanged. The 2021 Class III and Class IV milk price forecasts are raised from last month, and the all milk price forecast is raised to $17.05 per cwt.
Corn Balance Sheet
Estimated Weekly Meat Production
Export Sales Highlights
Farms and Land in Farms Highlights
Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook
Milk Production By State
National Drought Monitor
National Feeder Cattle Report
National Grain Report
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Number Of Farms By State
Quarterly Hogs & Pigs
Soybean Balance Sheet
United States Ag Production Report
USDA Grain Stocks Report
USDA Prospective Plantings Report
WASDE: Feed Grain Outlook
WASDE: Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook
WASDE: Oilseed Outlook
WASDE: Wheat Outlook
Rob Cook, RobCookKC@gmail.com