WASDE: Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook
The forecast for 2021 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher forecast beef, broiler, and turkey production more than offsets lower pork production. The increase in beef production is small as higher expected cow slaughter is largely offset by lower steer and heifer slaughter. Pork production is lowered as higher expected slaughter is more than offset by lower carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is raised primarily on higher production in the second quarter while turkey production is raised on hatchery data and a more rapid pace of slaughter. Egg production is raised from the previous month on recent hatchery data. The 2022 red meat and poultry production forecast is little changed from last month with only a slight increase in turkey production due to expected improvement in turkey prices.
The beef import forecast is raised for 2021 and 2022 on expected strength in demand for processing beef. Exports for both years are raised on expected firm demand from Asian markets. Pork export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are raised from the previous month as demand in several markets has strengthened. Broiler and turkey export forecasts for 2021 are raised on recent trade data; no change is made to 2022.
For 2021, cattle, hog, and turkey price forecasts are raised, reflecting current price strength. Hog and turkey prices are also raised for the first quarter of 2022. Broiler and egg price forecasts are reduced for second quarter 2021 based on current prices; no changes are made to prices in the outlying quarters.
Milk production for 2021 is raised from last month on higher expected cow numbers. The fat basis import forecast is reduced from the previous month on lower expected imports of butterfat containing products, while the skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged. Exports on both fat and skims-solids bases are raised from last month. Fat basis export increases are underpinned largely by higher shipments of butterfat-containing products and cheese, while skim-solids increases primarily reflect stronger expected cheese, lactose, and whey shipments. Price forecasts for butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey are raised from the previous month on recent price strength and stronger anticipated demand. The cheese price forecast is lowered from last month on relatively large stocks and current prices. The lower forecast cheese price results in a lower Class III price, but the higher NDM and butter prices support result in a higher Class IV price. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $18.85 per cwt for 2021.
The 2022 milk production forecast is raised from last month as higher forecast cow numbers for 2021 carry into 2022. Import forecasts are unchanged. The fat basis export forecast is unchanged, but the skim-solids export forecast is increased on expected strength in whey exports. For 2022, butter, NDM, and whey price forecasts are raised from the previous month while the cheese price is unchanged. Thus, Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised from last month. The all milk price forecast is raised to $18.75 per cwt for 2022.