WASDE: Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook
The 2020 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month. Beef production is raised from the previous month as higher expected steer and heifer slaughter more than offsets lower non-fed cattle slaughter. Heavier carcass weights are also expected to support increased beef production. Pork production is increased on higher first-quarter slaughter. The broiler production forecast is raised on the current pace of slaughter as well as recent hatchery data which points towards continued flock expansion. The turkey production forecast is increased on recent production data and hatchery data. Forecast egg production is increased as the laying flock continues to expand.
The 2020 beef import forecast is raised from last month on higher expected imports of processing grade beef, while the export forecast is reduced on weaker anticipated demand in several markets. Pork exports are raised from last month on recent trade data and strong international demand for U.S. pork products. The broiler and egg export forecasts are raised slightly from last month on recent trade data, while the turkey forecast is reduced.
The fed cattle price forecast is reduced from last month on recent price weakness and increased production. The hog price forecast is reduced on pressure from large hog supplies. Broiler prices are lowered as larger supplies outweigh demand. The first-quarter turkey price is reduced on recent price weakness. Egg prices are raised on expected demand strength.
The milk production forecast for 2020 is raised from last month on a higher expected cow inventory. The 2020 fat basis import forecast is raised from the previous month on recent trade data and stronger anticipated imports of cheese and butterfat products. The fat basis export forecast is reduced on slower expected demand in the first half of the year. On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is raised on stronger imports of cheese, milk proteins, and several other dairy products. The skim-solids basis export forecast is raised on expectations of continued strength in international demand.
Annual product price forecasts for cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are lowered from the previous month. However, the whey price forecast is raised. The Class III price is reduced on the lower cheese price forecast, while the Class IV price is reduced on lower butter and NDM price forecasts. The all milk price forecast is lowered from the previous month to $18.25 per cwt.