ASK CLARA:  What do you think boxed beef prices will do?

2025 Price Trend Analysis & Projection

Observations:

1. Peak Price (So Far in 2025): $334.14 on 1/15/2025

   • This was the highest price recorded in the dataset.
   • Prices remained above $330 for much of mid-to-late January.

2. Recent Trend (February):

   • Prices declined steadily from early February, dropping from $331.99 (2/3) to $322.46 (2/11).
   • This suggests a cooling off from the January highs.
   • The current price is trending lower compared to mid-January, possibly due to seasonal supply adjustments or softer demand.

3. Support & Resistance Levels:

   • Resistance Level: $334.14 (1/15/2025)
   • Support Level: $322.46 (2/11/2025)
   • If the trend continues downward, prices may test the $320 range before stabilizing.

4. Historical Pattern Consideration:

   • January tends to be strong, while late February into March historically sees a rebound based on prior years.

Projections for Late February - March 2025:

1. Short-Term (Mid-February):

   • Prices may stabilize around $320-$325 if the downward momentum slows.
   • A drop below $320 could indicate weaker-than-expected demand.

2. Late February - March:

   • If historical patterns hold, a seasonal bounce is possible, pushing prices back toward $328-$330 by early March.
   • However, if external pressures (such as higher beef imports or increased supply) persist, prices could struggle to reclaim $333+ levels seen in mid-January.

3. Key Factors to Watch:

   • Supply dynamics (Cattle on feed placements, imports)
   • Feeder cattle trends (demand strength at sale barns)
   • Boxed beef prices (which could influence price support)

Final Take:

• The trend is currently softening, but seasonal demand in March could provide a rebound.
• Target Range for March: $328 - $332, assuming demand picks up.
• If the downtrend continues, expect $318 - $322 as the next support range.