Cattle Market Insights: Expert Analysis & Cattle Barometer Ratings (CLARA)
According to Ben DiCostanzo, March Feeder Cattle held above key support levels at 264.50 and 264.675, forming a weak Bullish Harami candlestick pattern...
Cattle Industry Insider: Market Experts Weigh In
The cattle market remains in a state of cautious optimism, with feeder cattle futures rebounding, but cash prices showing softness. March feeder cattle climbed to $268.12 (+$3.22), while April live cattle gained $1.35 to $198.12, supported by strong buyer demand for turnout-conditioned cattle. Cash trade was weaker, with five-area live steers averaging $207.05 (-$2.52) and dressed steers at $326.98 (-$2.09). Storm concerns in the Midwest reduced auction receipts, particularly at Beaver County Stockyards (3,100 head, mostly weaned calves and yearlings), while Joplin ran 7,500 head with strong demand for lighter cattle. Bird flu fears persist, but poultry prices remain stable, contrasting with the volatility in the cattle market. Funds increased their net long positions to 147.4K contracts, near record highs, suggesting continued investor confidence. However, rising beef imports (4.5 billion lbs, +1.2 billion from 5-year avg) and record pork and chicken production in 2025 could cap upside potential. With boxed beef slightly lower at $332.05 (-$1.11) but still up for the year, the market maintains a mildly bullish stance as buyers position for spring grazing demand despite weather and supply headwinds.
Cattle Barometer Rating: 66 (Mildly Bullish)
✅ Bullish Factors: Rebounding feeder futures, strong demand for turnout cattle, fund confidence near record highs.
❌ Bearish Factors: Softer cash trade, record imports and competing protein supply, weather uncertainties.
The market remains firm, but cautious, with demand holding up despite pressures from supply and broader economic concerns.
Feeder Flash (Wall)
Monday’s Feeder Flash showed a modest rebound in cattle futures after last week’s sharp losses, with March feeder cattle up $3.22 to $268.12 and April live cattle up $1.35 to $198.12. Weather concerns reduced some cattle receipts in the Midwest, but turnout-conditioned cattle saw strong demand, particularly in Joplin, which ran 7,500 head. Beaver County Stockyards (OK) reported 3,100 head, including 500 weaned calves and 1,000 yearlings (mostly 6-7 weights). Cash cattle prices softened, with the five-area live steer average at $207.05 (-$2.52) and dressed steers at $326.98 (-$2.09). Bird flu concerns persist, but poultry prices remain stable, contrasting with ongoing volatility in feeder markets. Buyers remain focused on quality and turnout cattle, signaling cautious optimism heading into the spring grazing season.
Cattle Barometer Rating: 64 (Mildly Bullish)
✅ Support Factors: Strong demand for turnout cattle, feeder futures rebounding, active market participation.
❌ Pressure Factors: Lower cash trade prices, ongoing weather concerns, bird flu uncertainty.
The market remains somewhat optimistic, but challenges persist.
In The Cattle Markets (Koontz)
The cattle market is experiencing record-high prices, defying the typical softness of the first quarter. Live cattle futures and cash prices have surpassed $2 per pound, with Nebraska and Iowa-Minnesota leading the market. The USDA Cattle Report from January 31st confirms tight supplies are here to stay, with no signs of herd expansion. When herd-building eventually starts, it will further tighten supplies by reducing heifers in the feeder mix.
Cattle Barometer Rating: 72 (Bullish)
Bullish Factors:
✅ Record-High Prices – Live cattle and feeder cattle contracts have hit new highs, reinforcing a long-term uptrend.
✅ Tight Supplies – No herd expansion, ensuring continued supply constraints.
✅ Strong Regional Demand – Nebraska and Iowa-Minnesota remain strong price leaders.
✅ Lower Feed Costs – Corn prices have dropped, supporting feedlot profitability.
Bearish Factors:
⚠️ Carcass Weights – Persistently heavy weights could offset tight supplies.
⚠️ Packer Margins – Tight packer margins may lead to capacity reductions, limiting beef processing.
⚠️ Competing Meat Production – Increased pork and chicken production may pressure beef prices.
⚠️ Short-Term Downside Risk – Despite the long-term uptrend, near-term volatility remains.
March Feeder Cattle Holds Support, But Bearish Risks Remain – Ben DiCostanzo
According to Ben DiCostanzo, March Feeder Cattle held above key support levels at 264.50 and 264.675, forming a weak Bullish Harami candlestick pattern, which could signal a short-term retracement higher if support holds. However, the weekly chart showed a bearish Evening Star pattern, suggesting that any rebound could be an opportunity for bearish traders to re-enter. The Feeder Cattle Index has followed futures lower, and if support breaks, a test of 262.075 is likely, while a rally past 267.775 could trigger further upside.
Cattle Barometer Rating: 48 – Slightly Bearish
- Short-term support holding, but price action is weak.
- Bearish weekly chart formation suggests further downside risk.
- Potential retracement could offer selling opportunities for bears.
Wholesale Beef Market Faces Pressure as Feeder Cattle Prices Decline – Livestock Comments
According to Livestock Comments, wholesale beef prices have softened, which is typical for February, but the decline is putting packers in the red as they are paying more for finished cattle than they are receiving for beef. With feeder cattle futures declining over $10 in recent weeks, local calf and feeder cattle prices also dropped, with steers down $1 to $7 and heifers down $5 to $10. Market uncertainty remains high due to trade tariffs, seasonal trends, and the reopening of the Mexican border, with industry participants expecting a temporary influx of cattle from Mexico that could pressure prices further 【Livestock Comments】.
Cattle Barometer Rating: 50 – Neutral
📊 Wholesale beef prices weakening, squeezing packer margins.
📊 Feeder cattle futures and cash prices declining but expected to stabilize.
📊 Trade tariffs and cattle supply shifts from Mexico remain key uncertainties.
📊 Market volatility likely, but long-term bullish outlook still intact.
Softening Cattle Market Observed in Weekly Sales – Oklahoma Farm Report
According to Bob Rodenberger, a partner at Stockman Oklahoma Livestock Marketing, the cattle market softened this past week, following a $60 increase in feeder cattle futures over the past two months. While fat cattle prices held steady at $2-$3 per pound, the number of cattle sold was slightly lower, which Rodenberger believes is typical for this time of year. Looking ahead, uncertainty around Trump’s tariff policies, La Niña’s impact, and the reopening of the Mexican border could influence market direction, but Rodenberger remains optimistic given the reduced cattle supply despite steady meat production 【Oklahoma Farm Report】.
Cattle Barometer Rating: 52 – Neutral to Slightly Bullish
📊 Fats holding steady, but feeder and calf markets softened.
📊 Lower cattle supply supports market stability.
📊 Uncertainty from tariffs, weather, and border trade remains a factor.
📊 Short-term consolidation likely before market direction becomes clearer.