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Today's Prices (Mon pm)
CME LIVESTOCK: Live Cattle: $186.825 (-0.50); Feeder Cattle: $246.60 (-1.00); Hogs: $78.275 (+0.45)
CME GRAINS: Corn: $4.095 (+0.0475); Wheat: $5.7225 (-0.005); Soybeans: $9.81 (+0.11); Soybean Meal: $318.30 (+2.70)
STOCK UPDATE: Dow 30: 42,902.91 (-373.00); Nasdaq: 18,501.32 (+11.77); S&P 500: 5,844.94 (-19.73) (Stocks Pressured by Higher Bond Yields)
ENERGY PRICES: Crude Oil: $70.50 (+1.28); Ethanol: $1.545 (+0.015); Natural Gas: $2.333 (+0.075) (Crude Climbs as China Boosts Stimulus Measures)
BOXED BEEF: Choice: $322.86 (+2.21); Select: $ 296.21 (+2.01); Ch/Se Spread: 26.65; Total Loads: 118 compared to 126 on Friday
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Highlights (Cattle Report Channel)
Powerful Winter Storm Impacting Alaska; Excessive Rain in Guam (TUE)
In Alaska, a large, strong fall storm will bring coastal flooding, strong winds and heavy snow to a large a portion of the northern and western coast and Interior of the state. Monsoonal moisture and a low pressure area (Invest 97W) will produce excessive rain that may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and river flooding across Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands.
Weekly beef production up 3.9%, Cattle weights up 3 lbs from last week
This week's beef production is estimated at 523.5 million pounds, reflecting a 3.9% increase from last week's 504.1 million pounds but a slight decrease of 1.3% compared to the 530.6 million pounds produced during the same period last year. Year-to-date beef production has reached 21.2 billion pounds, down 0.7% from last year's 21.4 billion pounds, indicating a modest slowdown in overall production levels.
This week’s cattle slaughter is estimated at 608,000 head, up from last week’s 586,000 head but down from 638,000 head during the same period last year. Year-to-date cattle slaughter stands at 25.1 million head, a 3.8% decline from last year’s 26.1 million head Meanwhile, live cattle weights have increased slightly to 1,414 pounds compared to 1,411 pounds last week and 1,379 pounds last year. Dressed cattle weights also saw a small rise, now at 863 pounds, up from both last week's 862 pounds and last year's 834 pounds.
Livestock Comments: Dr. Andrew Griffith
As the calf market hits its stride, buyers are uncertain about how tight calf supplies really are. This "get what you can" mentality is dominating the market, as calf prices are unlikely to soften anytime soon. On the flip side, calf prices may not rise as quickly in December and early January as typically expected. Heifer marketings will be closely watched to see how many heifers from this calf crop are retained for beef cow replacements. Given the challenges faced this year, few heifers are likely to be retained. Additionally, slaughter cow marketings have slowed considerably, suggesting producers are holding on to cows but are not replacing those already shipped in previous years.
CATTLE ON FEED: Inventory up 1%; Placements down 1%
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.2 million head on September 1, 2024. The inventory was 1 percent above September 1, 2023. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.98 million head, 1 percent below 2023. Net placements were 1.92 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 395,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 305,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 435,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 485,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 265,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 90,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.82 million head, 4 percent below 2023.
The dry pattern continued over the High Plains with only a small area of North Dakota recording any precipitation this week. The warm temperatures continued as well with most areas 4-8 degrees above normal and even greater departures of 8-12 degrees above normal in the plains of Wyoming and Colorado and portions of western Nebraska and South Dakota. Degradation took place from North Dakota to Kansas and into the plains of Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. Moderate and severe drought were expanded in North Dakota, mainly in the south and west portions of the state.
U.S. EXPORT SALES: Beef sales up 3% to 14.1K mt
Net sales of 14,100 MT for 2024 were up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (4,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (2,600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (2,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Taiwan (700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Net sales of 900 MT for 2025 were reported for Japan (600 MT), Hong Kong (100 MT), the Philippines (100 MT), and Guatemala (100 MT). Exports of 15,300 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (3,800 MT), South Korea (3,800 MT), China (1,900 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,000 MT). CATTLE SLAUGHTHER: Monday slaughter at 120K head, compared to 120K last week and 125K last year. YTD slaughter at 25.2 million head, compared to 26.2 million last year (down 3.8%)
THE BEEF READ: Standout... Choice wholesale beef prices have had a meteoric rise since bottoming September 26, $26/cwt to be exact. Prices are their highest since July, led by a scalding hot seasonal rib rally and an incredible chuck market, with record high prices and extremely strong export demand. The packer throughput reduction a week before last was the jump start needed and the result has exceeded all expectations (THE BEEF)
DAILY DROP: The hide and offal value was estimated at $11.34, unch from Friday
Rob Cook, RobCookKC@gmail.com