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Today's Prices (Fri pm)
CME LIVESTOCK: Live Cattle: $188.575 (-0.325); Feeder Cattle: $259.70 (+1.075); Hogs: $93.475 (-0.30)
CME GRAINS: Corn: $3.945 (-0.115); Wheat: $5.235 (-0.1425); Soybeans: $10.42 (-0.325); Soybean Meal: $334.30 (+0.10)
STOCK UPDATE: Dow 30: 40,589.34 (+654.27); Nasdaq: 17,357.88 (+176.16); S&P 500: 5,459.10 (+59.88) (Stocks Rebound Higher As Deflator Report Supports Fed Rate-Cut Expectations)
ENERGY PRICES: Crude Oil: $76.81 (-1.47); Ethanol: $1.8025 (-0.025); Natural Gas: $2.002 (-0.039) (Crude Oil Prices Fall on Demand Concerns)
BOXED BEEF: Choice: $313.77 (+1.31); Select: $297.46 (+2.35); Ch/Se Spread: 16.31; Total Loads: 101 compared to 131 on Thursday
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Highlights (Cattle Report Channel)
Areas of Excessive Rainfall and Fire Weather Today; Wildfire Smoke Bringing Unhealthy Air Quality to the Pacific Northwest (FRI)
In southeast Texas, the coastal Carolinas, and much of New Mexico today, showers and thunderstorms may bring excessive rainfall which could lead to areas of flooding. Dry, gusty winds will contribute to scattered areas of elevated to critical fire weather today in the western U.S. Wildfire smoke is causing unhealthy air quality today in parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Plains.
CATTLE TRADE: Cash trade up $1.50-2 to $190
So far for Friday in the Texas Panhandle negotiated cash trading has been moderate with light to moderate demand. Compared to last week live FOB purchases traded 1.50-2.00 higher at 190.00. In Kansas negotiated cash trading has been limited on light demand. Not enough purchases for a market trend. The last reported market was on Thursday with live FOB purchases at 190.00. In Nebraska negotiated cash trading and demand have been moderate. Compared to last week live FOB and dressed delivered purchases traded 2.00 higher at 198.00 and 312.00, respectively, with light test of both. In the Western Cornbelt negotiated cash trading has been slow on light to moderate demand. Compared to last week live FOB and dressed delivered purchases traded 2.00 higher at 198.00 and 312.00, respectively, with light test of both.
CATTLE ON FEED: Inventory up 1%; Placements down 7%
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on July 1, 2024. The inventory was 1 percent above July 1, 2023. The inventory included 6.82 million steers and steer calves, up 1 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 60 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.48 million head, up slightly from 2023. Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.56 million head, 7 percent below 2023. Net placements were 1.51 million head. During June, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 365,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 255,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 350,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 349,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 165,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 80,000 head.
Much of the Midwest remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week, while average temperatures were well below normal across much of the region with departures ranging between 1 to 9 degrees F below normal. Precipitation was also below normal across much of the Midwest, resulting in the expansion and intensification of drought in eastern parts of the region. Moderate to severe drought was expanded in parts of eastern and southern Ohio.
U.S. EXPORT SALES: Beef sales down 13% at 13.4K
Net sales of 13,400 MT for 2024 were down 13 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (4,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (2,200 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (1,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Hong Kong (1,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 16,300 MT were up 5 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,300 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT), China (2,500 MT), Mexico (1,600 MT), and Taiwan (1,300 MT).
Weekly Beef Production up 2.7%, Cattle Weights Up 35 Pounds From Last Year
Weekly beef production is estimated at 504.9 million pounds, reflecting a 2.7% increase from last week and a 0.7% rise from last year. Year-to-date beef production stands at 15.07 billion pounds, marking a 1.6% decrease from last year. Weekly cattle slaughter is estimated at 600,000 head, up 2.7% from last week but down 2.6% from last year. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is at 17.89 million head, a 4.5% decline from last year. Live cattle weights are estimated at 1,382 pounds, unchanged from last week but 35 pounds heavier than last year. Dressed cattle weights are estimated at 843 pounds, down 1 pound from last week but 27 pounds heavier than last year.
Livestock Comments: Dr. Andrew Griffith
The release of the cattle on feed report last week demonstrated heifer retention has yet to take center stage in the domestic cattle industry. One would think heifer retention would begin this fall as the spring calf crop is weaned, but drought could certainly throw a wrench in that way of thinking. Speaking of the spring calf crop, the price of freshly weaned calves tends to seasonally decline in the fall months as a glut of calves comes to market in a time period when sickness becomes more prevalent due to large temperature swings from day to night. However, the decline may not be as drastic this fall due to fewer calves making their way to market due to a smaller calf crop and heifer retention.
CATTLE SLAUGHTHER: Weekly cattle slaughter is estimated at 600,000 head, up 2.7% from last week but down 2.6% from last year. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is at 17.89 million head, a 4.5% decline from last year
THE BEEF READ: Wrangling For More... Negotiated fed cattle prices have dropped the last couple of weeks but this week looks like a steady go at worst. Just a few thousand cattle have traded at steady money but steady bids have been passed as cattle feeders price cattle higher. Packers had hoped they would be able to back cash prices down for a few if not several more weeks, but nothing is scaring the cattle feeder (THE BEEF)
DAILY DROP: The hide and offal value was estimated at $11.50, unch from Friday
Rob Cook, RobCookKC@gmail.com