WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 are 55 million bushels lower based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol for 2023/24. Corn production for 2024/25 is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 183.6 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 15.0 billion bushels. With supply falling and use unchanged, ending stocks are reduced 16 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.10 per bushel. 

Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.502 billion. This month’s 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, virtually unchanged trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for the EU, Ghana, Russia, and Serbia partially offset by increases for Tanzania and Canada. EU corn production is lowered based on reductions for Romania and Hungary partially offset by an increase for France. Foreign barley production is lower with declines for Canada and the EU partly offset by an increase for Australia. 

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2024/25 include larger corn exports for Tanzania and Canada with reductions for Russia, the EU, and Serbia. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Mexico, India, and Thailand but reduced for China, Canada, and Iran. Foreign corn ending stocks are cut 1.4 million tons to 256.1 million, mostly reflecting a reduction for China partly offset by an increase for Tanzania. World corn ending stocks, at 308.4 million tons, are down 1.8 million.