WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for higher exports and lower ending stocks.

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for higher exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 2.1 billion reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced 25 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.85 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,502.0 million. The 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade, and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is raised with increases for Russia, Ukraine, the EU, and Egypt partially offset by reductions for Mexico and Canada. Corn production for Ukraine and Russia is raised based on reported harvest results to date. EU corn production is higher as an increase for France is partially offset by a reduction for Bulgaria. Mexico corn production is cut mostly reflecting lower area. Foreign barley production is raised with increases for Canada and Australia.

Corn exports are raised for Ukraine, the United States, and Turkey. Corn imports are higher for Mexico and Iraq. Barley exports are raised for Canada while imports are raised for China. For 2022/23, corn imports are raised for Mexico but lowered for the EU and Saudi Arabia. Barley exports are raised for Australia. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2023/24 are slightly higher based on increases for Ukraine and Russia. Global corn stocks, at 315.2 million tons, are up fractionally.