WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. 

Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1.496 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, reduced trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher as increases for India, Russia, and Ukraine are partly offset by declines for South Africa and Mexico. India is raised reflecting increases to both area and yield; the latest information from the government indicates greater planted area, while yield prospects are higher on exceptional kharif monsoon season rainfall. Russia is increased based on the latest data from Rosstat. Ukraine is raised based on updated harvest information. South Africa is reduced mostly reflecting lower area. Mexico is cut as lower winter corn yield expectations are partially offset by higher summer corn area. Foreign barley production is raised, with an increase for Australia partly offset by a decline for Argentina.

Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include reduced corn exports for Brazil and South Africa. For 2023/24, Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2025 are lowered based on observed shipments to date. More than offsetting is an increase for Argentina. Corn imports for 2024/25 are cut for China and Taiwan but raised for Turkey, Vietnam, Colombia, and Egypt. Barley exports are raised for Australia, Russia, and Turkey but lowered for Argentina. Barley imports are raised for Iran and Iraq. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered, mostly reflecting declines for China and Argentina that are partly offset by increases for Russia and India. Global corn ending stocks, at 288.9 million tons, are down 1.4 million.