WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and slightly lower ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are lowered 145 million bushels, mostly reflecting a greater use forecast for 2023/24. Exports are raised 75 million bushels based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date. Feed and residual use is up 75 million bushels based on indicated disappearance in the June Grain Stocks report. Corn production for 2024/25 is forecast up 240 million bushels on greater planted and harvested area from the June Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre. Total use is raised 100 million bushels with increases to both feed and residual use and exports based on larger supplies and lower expected prices. With use rising slightly more than supply, ending stocks are down 5 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.30 per bushel. 

Oats production is forecast up 15 million bushels reflecting higher area in the Acreage report and an increase in yield to a record 70.9 bushels per acre in today’s Crop Production report. Barley production is lowered 11 million bushels on fractionally lower area in the Acreage report and a cut in yield to 74.2 bushels per acre in today’s Crop Production report. Sorghum production is reduced 15 million bushels based on the lower area reported in the Acreage report. 

Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.2 million tons higher to 1.512 billion. This month’s 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and use, and larger stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is reduced based on declines for the EU, Canada, and Russia. Canada is down based on lower area. For the EU and Russia, extreme early-season heat in southeastern Europe and the Southern and North Caucasus districts of Russia reduce yield prospects. For 2023/24, corn production is lowered for Argentina, Pakistan, Mexico, and the Philippines. Foreign barley production for 2024/25 is down with cuts for Canada, the EU, and Russia. 

Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include larger corn exports for the United States with reductions for Russia and the EU. Corn imports are raised for Canada and Mexico but lowered for Iran and Bangladesh. For 2023/24 corn exports are raised for Ukraine and the United States but lowered for Argentina, Pakistan, and India. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2024/25 are higher, with increases for Pakistan, Mexico, and Turkey partly offset by a decline for Ukraine. Global corn stocks, at 311.6 million tons, are up 0.9 million.