WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, domestic use, and ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are cut 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion, reflecting an increase in exports that is partly offset by lower feed and residual use for 2024/25. Feed and residual use is down 75 million based on indicated disappearance in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date and, if realized, would be record high. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast down 115 million bushels on lower planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre. Total use is cut 50 million bushels with a reduction for feed and residual use based on lower supplies. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 90 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.20 per bushel. 

Barley production is up fractionally as slightly higher area in the Acreage report more than offsets a decline in yield to 77.1 bushels per acre in today’s Crop Production report. Oats production is raised 14 million bushels reflecting higher area and an increase in yield to 75.5 bushels per acre. Sorghum production is reduced 25 million bushels based on the lower area reported in the Acreage report. 

Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 3.6 million tons lower to 1.547 billion. This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, total use, and stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is raised reflecting area increases for Canada and Mexico. For 2024/25, corn production is raised for Brazil and the Philippines with a partly offsetting decline for Mexico. Brazil corn yield expectations are boosted this month based on reported second crop harvest results to date for the Center-West. Foreign barley production for 2025/26 is down with cuts for Turkey, Russia, the EU, Ukraine, and United Kingdom partly offset by larger production prospects for Kazakhstan. 

Major global trade changes for 2025/26 include larger corn imports for Zimbabwe and Egypt but reductions for Canada and Mexico. For 2024/25 corn exports are raised for the United States and Canada but lowered for Turkey. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are cut, with reductions for China and India partly offset by an increase for Brazil. Global corn stocks, at 272.1 million tons, are down 3.2 million.