WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for greater exports, reduced feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks. Feed and residual use is cut 25 million bushels to 5.8 billion based on disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated in the March 31 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 100 million bushels reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and relatively competitive U.S. prices. With no other use changes, ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. 

Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 0.4 million tons lower to 1.495 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, virtually unchanged trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is raised, with increases for the EU, Tanzania, and Honduras partially offset by declines for Moldova, Cambodia, and Kenya. EU corn is higher reflecting larger crops for Poland, Croatia, France, and Germany that are partially offset by reductions for Romania and Bulgaria. 

Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include higher projected corn exports for the United States and a reduction for Pakistan. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Mexico, Turkey, and Peru but lowered for Vietnam. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher relative to last month, reflecting increases for South Korea and Pakistan. Global corn ending stocks, at 287.7 million tons, are down 1.3 million.