Beef Trade Outlook

Beef Exports 

U.S. beef exports in October totaled 241 million pounds, less than 1 percent lower year over year. Exports to China were up 20 percent compared to a year earlier, while exports to South Korea were up 6 percent. Those year-over-year increases were offset by decreased exports to Canada (-24 percent), Taiwan (-21 percent), and Japan (-6 percent). Monthly exports to Canada have been steadily declining since June, partially driven by a stronger U.S. dollar; in October monthly exports to Canada reached their lowest level since 2007. Monthly exports to Taiwan have also fallen off since reaching a peak in June, and exports to Japan have been declining since July of this year.  

Exports to China reached nearly 45 million pounds, the largest monthly total this year. China’s reported beef imports from all countries in October were about 7 percent higher than the previous year, the first year-over-year increase since May of this year, according to the Trade Data Monitor.  Year-to-date U.S. beef exports through October are about 3 percent lower than in the same period last year, as the chart below shows. The total export forecast for fourth-quarter 2024 is unchanged from last month at 710 million pounds. The annual export forecast is also unchanged at 2.960 billion pounds, which if realized would be a year-over-year decrease of less than 3 percent. 

The changes to the annual 2025 beef export forecast primarily reflect the changes to U.S. beef production this month, as discussed above. Due to the decreased production expectation, beef exports are lowered across the last three quarters of 2025, bringing the annual forecast to 2.595 billion pounds. This brings exports to around 10 percent of production, compared to an expected 11 percent in 2024.  

Beef Imports 

Beef imports rose again in October to 414 million pounds, more than 35 percent higher year over year. Imports were up from last year from all major suppliers except Canada. Imports from Australia have risen since May of this year and have followed a pattern similar to that of 2014. The chart below shows that year-to-date imports from Australia have surpassed imports from Canada, bringing Australia back as the top supplier of beef to the United States for the first time since 2016. 

Beef imports from Brazil continue strong, despite being subject to the higher out-of-quota tariff rate through the end of the year. During the previous 2 years, U.S. imports of Brazilian beef tapered off in the last few months of the year as importers waited for the quota to reopen on January 1. However, demand for beef trimmings and beef prices in the United States remain elevated enough to offset the extra costs of the tariff. Additionally, beef production and total exports from Brazil remain elevated, with total exports to all countries up more than 29 percent through October according to the Trade Data Monitor. Imports from Argentina and Uruguay were also very strong year over year in October. As of December 9, the individual quotas for Argentina and Uruguay were 96 and 89 percent filled, respectively.  

Based on increased imports from Oceania and South America, the beef import forecast for fourth-quarter 2024 is raised 80 million pounds to 1.170 billion, bringing the annual forecast to 4.588 billion pounds. If realized, this would be a 23-percent increase year over year.  

After adjusting the import forecast for fourth-quarter 2025 to reflect a similar seasonality pattern to 2024, further changes to the 2025 annual beef import forecast primarily reflect the changes made to U.S. beef production this month, as discussed above. Higher expected imports resulting from decreased domestic beef availability and increased beef imports from Mexico were partially offset by an expectation of decreased demand for lean trimmings due to lower anticipated steer and heifer slaughter. The annual forecast is therefore raised to 4.710 billion pounds, which would be a 3-percent year-over-year increase.