Beef Trade Outlook

Beef Exports Raised Slightly From Last Month

Monthly exports in February were 244 million pounds, 3 percent less than last year but just slightly above the 2019–23 average. Exports to Taiwan and China were somewhat stronger than expected. February exports to Taiwan were counter-seasonally higher than January, increasing to nearly 16 million pounds, 15 percent higher year over year. This was also the largest monthly shipment to Taiwan since shipments started falling well below the 5-year average in August 2023. Exports to China were only 3 percent lower year over year, but 85 percent above the 5-year average. 

On a global scale, as other major beef-exporting countries increase their shipments, U.S. beef is expected to continue to be less competitive. According to data from the Trade Data Monitor, the unit values of year-to-date beef exports through February from Brazil, Australia, Argentina, and New Zealand are all between 5 and 10 percent lower year over year. The unit values of exports from the United States were nearly 13 percent higher year over year. Demand for high-quality U.S. beef will likely face economic headwinds throughout the year as limited supplies keep prices high. 

Based on the stronger-than-anticipated exports in February, the forecast for first-quarter exports is raised 20 million pounds to 740 million. With continued expectations of limited domestic production and exportable supplies—combined with steeper competition from other beef-exporting countries—the forecasts for the remaining quarters are unchanged for an annual forecast of 2.805 billion pounds. This would be about an 8-percent decrease year over year. 

Beef Import Tariff Rate Quota Fill Rates Ahead of Last Year

February beef imports were 351 million pounds, 24 percent higher year over year and a record for the month of February. Similar to the pattern of the last 2 years, February imports showed a steep decline from the record-setting January imports. This is partly the result of the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system where beef imports up to a certain limit are subject to a smaller tariff; once that quota is reached, the imports are subject to a higher out-of-quota tariff. The quotas restart on January 1 each year. Over the past 3 years, some countries have begun sending product to the United States in the late part of the year to be placed in bonded warehouses where they can be stored without being taxed until they are released and officially counted as imports on January 1 under the new quota. 

The chart below shows the fill rates for the TRQs as of the first week in April this year compared to last year. The TRQ for “Other countries” is open to all countries that do not have a specific quota or free trade agreement, including Brazil. Imports from Brazil are about 42 percent higher year over year through February. The “Other” TRQ was filled as of February 27 according to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Quota Status Report.

Also of note in the chart are the nearly doubled rates of fill for Australia and Uruguay. In recent years, the main TRQ of interest has been the “Other” TRQ, but with record imports expected, other quotas may be filled this year as well. After only the first 3 months of the year, the TRQ for Uruguay is already 40 percent filled compared to 21 percent in 2023. Imports under the Australia TRQ are about on pace with their status in early April 2015; the TRQ was filled in November of that year, the last time that occurred by year-end.

The beef import forecasts are unchanged from last month with the 2024 annual forecast at 4.175 billion pounds. If realized, this would be a 12-percent increase year over year and the largest annual beef-import total on record.