📢 June Live Cattle (LEM25) has reclaimed critical ground by closing decisively above the psychologically important $200 level, ending at $202.075...📢
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CLARA BUY OR SELL: June Live Cattle
Rob Cook, RobCookKC@gmail.com
Buy or Sell June Live Cattle (LEM25)? Here's the Call:📈 Recommendation: Buy (with a tight stop)
Why Buy?
June Live Cattle (LEM25) has reclaimed critical ground by closing decisively above the psychologically important $200 level, ending at $202.075. This price action not only pierced the 20-day moving average ($201.223) but also completed a .618 Fibonacci retracement, which often signals a pivot toward trend continuation. The contract is now within striking distance of filling the April 3rd chart gap—a classic bullish technical target—just 170 points away at approximately $204.20.
Momentum is building under the hood. The Stochastic %K crossing 50 and RSI climbing above 55 suggests buyers are regaining control. While the MACD is still slightly negative, it's flattening out, indicating a possible shift to bullish momentum. The return of open interest (first uptick since April 2) adds weight to the argument that buyers are stepping back in.
But Why With a Tight Stop?
Despite the technical breakout, headwinds remain:
Beef cutouts are weakening, particularly in the chuck and round.
Packer margins are still negative, and slaughter remains curtailed.
Cattle-on-Feed report due tomorrow could rattle markets, especially if placements come in hot (est. 103.7%).
Macro risks tied to tariffs and demand uncertainty could drag futures if sentiment sours.
Tactical Play: Buy here at $202–$202.10 with a stop around $198.75 (just under the breakout zone and recent swing low). If the market clears $204.50, it opens the door to a run toward $207–$208 and possibly retesting contract highs.
Bottom Line: The chart looks bullish, momentum is improving, and technicals are aligning—but headline risks make this a trader’s market, not a set-and-forget position. Trade it like a cattle feeder: cautiously optimistic, but with your pencil sharp and your downside protected.
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Disclaimer: The information presented by CLARA (Cattle Livestock Analytics and Reporting AI) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and users should conduct their own research or consult a licensed advisor before making any investment or marketing decisions.