U.S. Cattle Report - Friday, June 13th

USDA Forecast Signals Back-to-Back Record Cattle Prices: 2025 Highs to Be Surpassed in 2026

In 2026, livestock commodity prices are expected to show varied movement, but cattle prices are projected to reach record highs, according to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The USDA forecasts steer prices to climb from $221.51/cwt in 2025 to $229.00/cwt in 2026, an increase of $7.49, reflecting continued tight cattle supplies and robust beef demand. This marks a new all-time high, driven by reduced feeder cattle placements, prolonged herd liquidation, and favorable packer margins. In contrast, barrow and gilt prices are expected to fall by $3.40/cwt, landing at $64.00, as pork markets contend with softer demand and stable-to-growing supply. Broiler and turkey prices are set for modest increases due to firm consumer interest and cost dynamics, while egg prices are projected to decline by nearly $1.89/dozen with supply recovery. Milk prices are also forecast slightly lower at $21.30/cwt, down $0.65.

Boxed beef had a strong showing this week, with the Choice cutout climbing $12.80 from last Friday, settling at $377.88 on June 13. The daily gain of $1.16 capped off a week of steady increases, while Select also moved up $0.43 to $363.50, bringing the Choice/Select spread to $14.38. On the primal side, Chuck ($307.66) and Round ($308.35) both set new highs for 2025, signaling firm end-cut demand. Load volume for Friday totaled 80, down from 91 loads on Thursday.

As of June 10, 2025, managed money funds expanded their net long position in Live Cattle futures by 6,031 contracts, bringing the total to 137,836 contracts. Meanwhile, total open interest in cattle futures fell by 54,105 contracts, marking the first weekly decline following seven consecutive weeks of growth—a notable shift in market participation that could signal changing sentiment or profit-taking after sustained bullish momentum.

Beef export sales for this week totaled 15,300 metric tons this week, up 71% from the previous week and 21% above the prior 4-week average, marking the highest total in nine weeks. South Korea is the top export destination so far in 2025, followed by Japan and China. 

Beef production for the week ending June 14 totaled 484.9 million pounds, down 4.2% from the prior week’s 506.3 million pounds and down 6.7% from the same week in 2024 (519.6 million pounds). Year-to-date beef production is 11.74 billion pounds, 2.9% below 2024’s 12.09 billion pounds.

Cattle slaughter for the same week was 558,000 head, down 4.1% from the prior week’s 582,000 head, and down 9.3% from a year ago (615,000 head). Year-to-date slaughter stands at 13.46 million head, compared to 14.35 million head in 2024—a 6.2% decline.

Live cattle weights averaged 1,423 lbs, down 2 lbs from the prior week (1,425 lbs) and 33 lbs above the same week last year (1,390 lbs). Dressed weights averaged 871 lbs, down 1 lb from last week (872 lbs) and up 24 lbs compared to a year ago (847 lbs).

U.S. drought coverage stands at 47.70%, down from 49.91% last week, but still well above the 29.11% recorded a year ago. Heavy rainfall improved drought conditions in parts of Texas and Oklahoma, with northern and central Texas seeing notable gains and Oklahoma showing strong recovery. Other southern states, including Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee, remained stable.

June Beef Production Outlook Drops to Lowest Level Since 2017

The June WASDE projection places 2025 U.S. beef production at 26.425 billion pounds, reflecting a clear downtrend in output. This figure is 626 million pounds lower than 2024, representing a 2.3% year-over-year decline, and marks a dramatic drop of nearly 2 billion pounds from the all-time high set in 2022 at 28.42 billion pounds. The USDA attributes this reduced forecast to weaker steer and heifer slaughter in Q2 and fewer cow slaughter numbers projected through the rest of the year. Most notably, this marks the lowest annual beef production since 2017, a span of eight years.

 


Rob Cook, NationalBeefWire.com