World Soybean Report
Global 2022/23 oilseed production is forecast down to 643 million tons as lower U.S. soybean production is only partially offset by higher Russia sunflowerseed production.
World Soybean Report
OVERVIEW 2022/23
The global 2022/23 oilseed production forecast is cut 1 million tons to 645 million, reflecting lower Argentina soybean and Ukraine sunfowerseed crops more than offsetting higher Australia and European Union rapeseed production. Oilseed trade is marginally higher on increased Argentina soybean and Australia rapeseed exports. Global crush is reduced slightly on lower Argentina soybean and Malaysia palm kernel processing. Total global oilseeds stocks are up primarily on higher soybean stocks in China. The projected U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is unchanged at $14.00/bu.
OVERVIEW 2021/22
Global 2021/22 oilseed production is raised slightly to 605 million tons as a larger Argentina sunflowerseed crop offsets reduced Argentina soybeans, China sunflowerseed, and Malaysia palm kernel production. Oilseed trade is up on higher China soybean imports. Global oilseed ending stocks are up on higher China and Argentina soybean carryout. Protein meal production is down, with global trade lower on reduced soybean meal exports from Argentina and India. Meal consumption is up marginally. Global vegetable oil trade is down, primarily on lower Indonesia palm oil exports and Argentina soybean oil exports. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is unchanged at $13.30/bu.
Soybean prices in October were slightly lower on average compared to the previous month for the top two exporters but demonstrated an upward trend as the month progressed. The later recovery was motivated by geopolitical events and strengthening demand for crush, with soy oil for biodiesel driving most of the increase.In Argentina, the expiration of the ‘soybean dollar’ incentive at the end of September resulted in comparatively slower selling this month.
South America soy meal saw marginally higher average prices in October. The premium for U.S. soy meal compared to South America narrowed significantly this month compared to the last, with all three exporters trading within $10/ton of each other. The United States continues to see strong crush margins compared to other countries, owing to robust demand for soy oil for biodiesel production.
Soybean oil prices were up in October based on positive sentiments across the vegetable oil market and strengthening crude oil prices. The premium for U.S. soybean oil to South America soybean oil narrowed slightly in October compared to September. Average palm oil prices, down from all-time highs earlier this year, were supported in the second half of the month by gains from other vegetable oils and uncertainty in the Black Sea.