World Rice Report

World Rice Report

OVERVIEW FOR 2022/23
Global rice production is forecast down due to smaller crops for Pakistan, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka.  Global consumption is forecast slightly lower primarily for India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Global stocks are projected to decline, mainly for India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Imports are forecast down slightly with decreases in Mali and Mozambique more than offsetting an increase for Sri Lanka. Exports are forecast lower with cuts for Pakistan and the United States, more than offsetting an increase for India.

OVERVIEW FOR 2021/22
Global rice production is forecast lower due to smaller crops in Cambodia and Vietnam. Global consumption is projected up, primarily in India and Nigeria. Global stocks are forecast down, especially in India due to strong domestic use and larger exports. Exports are forecast up, primarily for India, more than offsetting a cut in Pakistan.

In the past month, U.S. quotes went up by $5 despite the recent harvest and remains the highest among the major exporters at $730/ton. Uruguayan prices are unchanged at $545/ton. Vietnamese prices rose$19 to $448/ton amid tighter supplies and increased demand. Thai quotes declined $12 to $418/ton as a result of increased rice supplies from the new crop. Pakistani prices were up $23 to $418/ton with smaller supplies from the recent flooding. Indian quotes decreased $5 to $385/ton and remain the lowest globally.

MARKET FEATURES

Pakistan Rice Exports to Contract Amid Flood-Affected Production

The Pakistan rice crop was affected this year by devastating floods, with production forecast to fall 27 percent from 2021/22 to the lowest level since 2012/13. This in turn is expected to constrain Pakistan’s exportable supplies. While Pakistan rice exports surged during the 2021/22 marketing year (Nov/Oct), exports were cut this month and are now forecast to decline 17 percent in 2022/23.

Rice is produced primarily in Punjab and Sindh provinces and the crop was in the growing season when the floods hit the Sindh province. Both area harvested and yield were affected, as noted in the October 2022 World Agricultural Production report (pages 11-12). Rice is much less of a staple in the Pakistani diet compared to wheat. With tighter rice supplies and higher prices, consumption is expected to decline slightly but still result in fewer exportable rice supplies.

Throughout 2021/22, exports expanded considerably, up 26 percent to 4.4 million tons during the first 11 months of the marketing year. Exports were up to key buyers including Afghanistan and Kenya, but have also expanded considerably to smaller markets like Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates. The most notable growth in Pakistan exports in 2021/22 has been to China, where broken rice exports have more than doubled on strong demand for use in feed.

With tighter supplies, 2022/23 exports are forecast to return to more normal levels at 4.0 million tons. As the fourth largest exporter, reduced exports from Pakistan may benefit India, its top competitor. Both countries export basmati rice, regular milled long grain rice, parboiled rice, and broken rice.However, with India banning broken rice exports, Pakistan may still have opportunities to ship to China.