WASDE: Wheat Outlook
The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, decreased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 145 million, on a strong pace to date and expectations for the rest of the marketing year. Total domestic use is projected 4 million bushels lower to 1,155 million, all on a reduction in food use following the release of the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. July-September wheat used in milling is the smallest for this quarter since at least 2014 when NASS began reporting this series. With no other changes to the U.S. balance sheet, projected ending stocks are raised 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20 on lower expected prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for increased supplies, fractionally lower consumption, less trade, and larger ending stocks. Supplies are projected up 0.6 million tons to 1,051.5 million as increased beginning stocks more than offset a decline in global production. World production is lowered 1.5 million tons to 782.0 million on decreases to many countries including India, Argentina, Kazakhstan, the United Kingdom, and Brazil. The decrease for production in India is based on revised government estimates. In Argentina, production is forecast 1.5 million tons lower to 15.0 million as rains in October were too late to benefit the crop in Cordoba and Santa Fe. These production declines are partially offset by a 5.0-million-ton increase in the forecast for Russia, up to 90.0 million, based on near-final harvest data from the Ministry of Agriculture that indicates more harvested area and higher yields. The global forecast for trade is lowered 1.3 million tons to 205.0 million, primarily on lower exports from Argentina, India, and Egypt that are only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. Projected global ending stocks are raised 0.6 million tons to 258.7 million, with larger forecasts for Russia, China, and Argentina more than offsetting declines for India, Ukraine, and Brazil.