WASDE: Wheat Outlook

WASDE:  Wheat Outlook

The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 725 million on several large recent export sales of Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat to China. SRW exports are raised 30 million bushels to 175 million, the largest SRW exports since 2013/14. White wheat exports are lowered 5 million bushels to 155 million on a slow pace of sales and shipments. Projected all wheat ending stocks are reduced by 25 million bushels to 659 million, still up 13 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.30 on lower projected stocks, NASS prices reported to date, and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.

The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for higher supplies, consumption, and trade with reduced stocks. Supplies are raised 1.3 million tons to 1,052.9 million, primarily on higher government production estimates for Australia and Canada partially offset by a reduction for Brazil. Global consumption is raised 1.8 million tons to 794.7 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for the EU, South Korea, and Thailand and increased food, seed, and industrial use primarily for China. World trade is raised 2.2 million tons to 207.2 million on higher exports by Australia, the United States, Canada, and Ukraine. Projected 2023/24 global ending stocks are reduced 0.5 million tons to 258.2 million, the lowest since 2015/16.