WASDE: Oilseed Outlook
This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23 include lower beginning and ending stocks and higher prices. Lower beginning stocks reflects increased exports for 2021/22. Soybean exports for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 2.17 billion reflecting strong export sales and a reduced export forecast for Brazil. With reduced supplies for 2022/23 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, down 30 million. The soybean price is forecast at $14.70 per bushel, up 30 cents from last month.
Global oilseed production for 2022/23 is lowered 0.3 million tons to 646.8 million as lower sunflowerseed is partly offset by higher rapeseed and soybean output. Sunflowerseed production is lowered and soybean production is raised for Ukraine based on planting progress reports. Rapeseed production is raised for Australia on higher harvested area.
Global 2022/23 soybean ending stocks are raised 0.9 million tons to 100.5 million, driven mainly by higher beginning stocks for Argentina and Brazil. Argentina’s 2021/22 soybean production is raised 1.4 million tons to 43.4 million on better-than-expected reported yields. Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean production is raised 1.0 million tons to 126.0 million on higher area reported for Mato Grosso.