WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook

The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. 

WASDE:   Coarse Grain Outlook

This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month.  The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. 

Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 2.7 million tons lower to 1,507.4 million.  This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, larger trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month.  Foreign corn production is forecast lower with declines for South Africa, Ukraine, Mexico, Venezuela, and Russia that are partly offset by increases for Argentina and Syria.  South Africa is down reflecting lower yield prospects.  Mexico is cut based on expectations of lower winter corn area. Ukraine and Russia are reduced based on reported harvest results to date.  Argentina is raised based on higher expected area.  Foreign barley production is down, with reductions for Iraq and Syria that are partly offset by an increase for Australia.

Major global trade changes include higher corn exports for Ukraine and Argentina but reductions for South Africa and India.  Corn imports are lowered for the EU, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and South Korea but raised for Mexico, Venezuela, and Indonesia.  Barley exports are raised for Australia.  Foreign corn ending stocks are lower, mostly reflecting a decline for Ukraine that is partly offset by an increase for Brazil.  Global corn ending stocks, at 319.6 million tons, are down 2.4 million.