WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol and feed and residual use and smaller ending stocks.
WASDE: Coarse Grain Outlook
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol and feed and residual use and smaller ending stocks. Corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.4 billion based on data through February from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of March. Feed and residual use is increased 25 million to 5.7 billion based on indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter. With no supply changes and use rising, ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 2.3 million tons lower to 1,505.1 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for declines in production, trade, and ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast lower as cuts for South Africa, Argentina, Mexico, and Moldova are partially offset by increases for the EU and the Philippines. Corn production is cut for South Africa as a continuation of drought during March further reduces yield prospects. Argentina and Mexico are both lowered reflecting a decline in yield expectations. EU corn production is raised mostly reflecting increases for Hungary, Poland, Spain, and France that are partly offset by declines for Romania, Slovakia, and Bulgaria. Foreign barley production is virtually unchanged.
Major global trade changes for 2023/24 include lower forecast corn exports for South Africa, India, and Tanzania but an increase for Russia. Corn imports are lowered for the EU, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Cuba, and Kenya but raised for Mexico. Barley imports are raised for China but lowered for Saudi Arabia and Algeria. Foreign corn ending stocks are essentially unchanged, mostly reflecting declines for Mexico and South Africa that are offset by small increases for several countries. Global corn ending stocks, at 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last month.