Uruguay Livestock and Products Annual

Highlights

2021 beef production is forecast up at 555,000 carcass weight equivalent, on larger fed cattle inventory.  2021 cattle stock is forecast up at 12.2 million head, the largest since 2005, following several seasons of large calf crops and low cattle exports. Beef exports in 2021 are forecast up 9 percent to 435,000 tons, carcass weight equivalent, with China remaining the primary destination.

Production

Uruguayan beef production for 2021 is forecast up at 555,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (cwe) . This is based on projected stronger FOB prices in Uruguay’s major export markets post COVID-19 and improved local cattle prices and higher fed cattle inventory. The average carcass weight in 2021 is expected to be slightly lighter than in 2020, a pattern that generally occurs when cattle slaughter increases.

In 2020, beef exports are expected to comprise roughly 78 percent of production as FOB prices in export markets in 2021 improve. In the past several months, local fed cattle prices have begun to reflect improved demand as reflected in Table 1 for live steers. In November/December 2019, downward pressure on imported beef prices in China was aggravated by weaker COVID-related demand in other export markets which saw the price slide continue into April 2020. As of May 2020, however, prices began to rebound in response to foreign demand.

As reflected in Table 2, live cattle exports in 2019 totaled 137,000 head, down significantly from the 2015-2018 average of 310,000 head per year and live cattle exports in 2020 and 2021 are forecast to remain below average due to uncompetitive prices.

Uruguay has one of the most productive cow herds in the region, with pregnancy rates of 75 percent and weaning rates of 65 percent, thanks to the moderate climate and productive environment. In 2020, good weather facilitated Uruguay’s record calf crop of 3.1 million head. In 2021, breeding cows and heifer inventory is forecast steady due to stable demand from China. An industry source estimated that a 75 percent pregnancy rate in 2020 would result in roughly 2.8-2.9 million weaned calves in 2021. Uruguay’s crop area over the past six years has diminished significantly due to tight returns with most of that land converted into productive pastures. Based on official data, planted pasture area has grown 23 percent over the past decade.

Cattle fattening has improved in recent years in response, partially, to the European Union’s (EU) 481 Quota (High Quality Beef Grain-Fed beef) requirements for which producers are incorporating grain and accelerating feed conversion to facilitate the marketing of younger cattle. In 2020, grain-fed cattle are projected to be 17-20 percent of total slaughter, despite low prices. Industry sources expect improved returns in 2021 due to lower prices for feeder cattle and somewhat stronger fed-cattle prices. The price of cattle in 2021 will depend primarily on the reaction of the foreign demand and FOB prices. Some contacts believe that a larger amount of cattle available for slaughter will put downward pressure on cattle prices, an aspect the slaughter sector would welcome to improve much needed profitability.

Despite the new government’s focus on improving the competitiveness of Uruguay exports, the slaughter sector’s economic stress since 2017 from high cattle and industrial costs, in dollar terms, is expected to continue. Although the sector was exempted from government COVID-19 restrictions, plants experienced higher costs due to additional sanitary measures, labor constraints and slower line speeds. In addition, Uruguay export prices compete at a disadvantage in key export markets to the currency-devaluated prices of Argentina and Brazil.

Uruguay has a slaughter capacity of about 3 million head. In the first 8 months of 2020, 32 meat packing plants were in operation, with one large processing plant closed. Two large Brazilian companies operated 7 plants and accounted for 43 percent of total slaughter. The top six companies accounted for 73 percent of slaughter and 92 percent of exports (measured in dollars).

The OIE recognizes Uruguay as free of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) with vaccination and a negligible BSE risk. There is concern about Brazil’s program of stopping FMD vaccination in shared border areas. Most contacts believe Uruguay should not stop vaccinating in the short term.

Domestic Consumption

Beef consumption in 2021 is projected at 165,000 tons cwe, a 3 percent increase from last year. Local sources forecast a 4 percent rebound in the economy in 2021, after an expected drop of 4-6 percent in GDP in 2020 because of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Beef consumption in 2020 is expected to hit a record low not seen since the 1960’s. (See Table 3). The consumption of other proteins, such as pork and poultry, are expected to remain flat or increase marginally. Consumption of sheep meat has been dropping in recent years, with a per capita consumption close to 2.5 kilos.