Stone Fruit: World Markets and Trade

Stone Fruit: World Markets and Trade

Turkey Peach and Nectarine Prospects Continue to Ripen

Turkey is the world’s third largest producer of peaches and nectarines and surpassed the European Union in 2021/22 to become the world’s leading exporter.

Peaches and nectarines are primarily grown in the coastal provinces of Bursa, Canakkale, Izmir, and Mersin, with peaches accounting for nearly 80 percent of production.  Between 2001/02 and 2011/12, output was fairly stable, averaging 500,000 metric tons (tons).  Production jumped to over 600,000 for the first time in 2012/13 and has not declined since 2015/16.  

Expanding output has been driven in large part by the rising popularity of nectarines among both domestic and foreign market consumers.  Peach acreage has contracted slightly the last 10 years but has been offset by increasing nectarine acreage, keeping the total combined planted area nearly unchanged.  Peach and nectarine growers have also been improving orchards, replacing older varieties with newer high-yield varieties, resulting in yield rising nearly 30 percent over the last decade.  Growers have also adopted the practice of high-density plantings, using new cultivars and rootstocks, and installing modern tree-training systems.   These changes have been in part propelled by government programs that provide support for various costs including for fuel, fertilizer, and saplings.  This has improved output and yield such that production is forecast to exceed 900,000 tons for the first time in 2022/23, rising to 940,000.  If realized, this would be an increase of 150,000 tons within 5 years.

Domestic consumption continues to account for the vast majority of domestic use, consumed fresh but also processed, especially in juices and nectars.  Exports remained at or below 8 percent of production up until 2016/17; however, as with production, 2015/16 was a watershed year for exports.  In 2015/16, volumes rose nearly 30 percent to over 50,000 tons and subsequently doubled within 3 years, accounting for 16 percent of production.  Exports  have grown almost non-stop since then, except for a decline in 2019/20 marked by reduced exports to key Middle East markets, and are projected to account for 18 percent of production in 2022/23.  

In 2021/22, Turkey became the top exporter for the first time, ousting the European Union from the leading role it had held for decades.  The European Union has experienced 3 consecutive years of crop-damaging weather, particularly in top producer and exporter Spain, sharply reducing EU export supplies.  But Turkey’s efforts to improve production have placed it in a position to remain the top supplier in 2022/23, accounting for over 20 percent of world exports.  

In the last 5 years, Russia was Turkey’s top market, accounting for over 65 percent of exports on average, but Turkey has expanded its global presence, gaining 13 new markets during this time for a total of 57 markets in 2021/22.  In further efforts to expand exports, Turkey’s Aegean Exporters’ Association is working with the Aegean University to better control pesticide usage with the intent to increase shipments to the European Union, its second largest market.  Total exports are forecast to ease slightly in 2022/23 to 165,000 tons, but shipments are expected to rise in the future as new plantings come online.  

Fresh Peach and Nectarine 2022/23 Highlights

World peach and nectarine production in 2022/23 is forecast to edge up 1.0 million tons to 23.7 million on rising output by China, European Union, and Turkey, the world’s top producers.   Exports are expected to be nearly unchanged as higher shipments from Uzbekistan and China offset lower EU and U.S. trade. 

China production is projected  up 800,000 tons to 16.8 million due to higher yields on good growing conditions, especially in southern China.  However, planted area continues to shrink as declining market returns encourage growers to switch to more profitable crops, including cherries.  

Exports are forecast to rebound due largely to the resumption of shipments to Russia.  Russia banned fresh fruit imports from China, including stone fruit, due to pest concerns in August 2019, lifting restrictions in February 2022.  Renewed shipments to Russia are expected to help boost exports 10,000 tons to 55,000.  Imports are also anticipated to rebound to a record 43,000 tons on higher shipments from Chile in the beginning of the marketing year (January-December).

EU production is forecast to improve to 3.1 million tons as supplies in France and Greece rebound from last year’s weather damage, more than offsetting significant losses in top grower Spain.  Aragon and Catalonia experienced intense cold and severe frosts in April and May, dropping Spain’s output by 30 percent.  With the majority of EU exports sourced from Spain, EU shipments are likewise expected to contract, down 12,000 tons to 125,000.  Reduced output is expected to boost imports 7,000 tons to 50,000.

Turkey production is forecast up 48,000 tons to 940,000, an eighth straight year of growth, driven largely by growing nectarine supplies.  Peach acreage accounts for the majority of growing area and output, but acreage has remained relatively stable since 2012/13.  Nectarine acreage is steadily growing, spurred by an increasing consumer preference for nectarines in domestic and foreign markets.  Despite higher supplies, exports are forecast to contract slightly to 165,000 tons on reduced shipments to Russia.

U.S. production is expected to drop over 100,000 tons to 605,000 due to late winter and early spring freezes impacting crops in the top three growing states of California, South Carolina, and Georgia.  U.S. production has halved since 2010/11, and is forecast at the lowest level since at least 1982/83 (the earliest year within the USDA Production, Supply and Distribution database).   Reduced supplies are anticipated to pressure exports lower to 70,000 tons, while imports are up to 35,000 tons, mostly from Chile where output is up.

Chile production is expected to continue its long upward trend, rising to 180,000 tons on favorable growing conditions and improved winter rainfall.  Rising nectarine output continues to outpace peach production as growers expand nectarine acreage in response to higher nectarine returns.  Exports are forecast up 8,000 tons to 120,000 on higher production.    Russia imports are forecast down 20,000 tons to 230,000 as reduced shipments from Turkey are only partially offset by gains from Uzbekistan and renewed supplies from China.  Despite this second straight year of declines, Russia remains the top importer and normally accounts for 30 percent of world trade.