Short-Range Weather Forecast
A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast U.S. Friday. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) outlook has been issued...
Source: Rob Cook, robcookkc@gmail.com
Thunderstorms Across the Southeast U.S.; Elevated to Locally Critical Fire Weather in Colorado
A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast U.S. Friday. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) outlook has been issued. Strong winds and hail will be the main threats. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will persist across south-central Colorado today due to dry conditions and gusty winds.
...Scattered showers and thunderstorms push into the central/southern Appalachians and Southeast today...
...Wet snow and wintry mix over the central High Plains on Saturday as heavy rain threat develops over parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley...
...Unseasonably warm across much of the South and Southwest as below average temperatures expand throughout the Great Plains and Midwest...
The main weather feature and focus for showers and thunderstorms through this weekend will be a cold front progressing across the East and stalling between the Southeast and southern Texas. Unsettled weather will start the short range forecasting period located across the central/southernAppalachians and Southeast. These locations will have the greatest chances for isolated thunderstorms to become strong enough to produce locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Elsewhere, light showers are expected to extend into the Northeast through tonight.
Precipitation is also expected to become more widespread and increase in intensity throughout the central High Plains and Colorado Front Range by tonight. A mix of rain and snow is likely, with heavy snow (greater than 4 inches) most likely along the Front Range and lesser amounts into the foothills on eastward into the High Plains. Snow chances should gradually subside by Saturday evening, but chilly temperatures will remain across much of the Great Plains on Sunday.
Meanwhile, instances of heavy rain and scattered flash flooding are possible on Saturday across parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley as numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms develop to the north of a stationary front. Repeating rounds of intense rainfall and areas with wet antecedent ground conditions have prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall between central Texas and the ArkLaMiss region. Fortunately, this system is forecast to quickly exit to the east on Sunday and shift shower and thunderstorm chances to the Southeast, limiting the flooding threat somewhat.
A quick-moving system will also swing light precipiation into the Northwest this weekend, which will continue to promote above average temperatures over the Southwest. Spring warmth will also be found throughout much of the South today and Saturday for places avoiding afternoon rain. For a majority of the Nation; however, well below average temperatures will remain locked in place this weekend underneath high pressure streaming in from Canada. Highs are anticipated to range from the 40s in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest to the 60s from the Mid-Atlantic to the Tennessee Valley. Lows into the 30s could produce frost and/or freeze conditions in the Midwest as well.
Snell