Short-Range Weather Forecast
The calm weather pattern that has been prevalent across the nation is set to change as a developing upper trough over the western U.S. introduces a severe weather setup ideal for spring across the central and southern Plain...
Source: Rob Cook, robcookkc@gmail.com
Unsettled Weather and Severe Thunderstorm Chances Gradually Expand Across Much of the Central United States Over the Next Several Days
Active Fire Weather Pattern to Become Situated Over the Southern High Plains
Above Average Temperatures Shift from the Great Basin to the Plains, While the West and East Remain Cool Through the End of the Week
The calm weather pattern that has been prevalent across the nation is set to change as a developing upper trough over the western U.S. introduces a severe weather setup ideal for spring across the central and southern Plains. This system is expected to move into the Southwest by early Thursday and reach the central Plains by Friday.
At the surface, moisture returning from the Gulf of Mexico will increase today and accumulate along a warm front that is slowly lifting across the southern Plains. Together with a dryline in the southern High Plains, these conditions could spark severe thunderstorms today from West Texas to central Oklahoma, enhancing the risk of isolated flash flooding.
The severe weather threat will escalate starting Thursday when a surface cyclone intensifies over the central High Plains due to the approaching upper-level trough. The warm front will continue to lift northward, and the dryline will advance eastward, creating a conducive environment for numerous thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains. Some of these storms may become severe, with the Storm Prediction Center indicating an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather in parts of southwest/south-central Kansas, western Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Potential hazards include very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few strong tornadoes. Additionally, multiple rounds of heavy rain may lead to scattered flash flooding, particularly in northeast Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, western Missouri, and northwest Arkansas.
By Friday, as the low-pressure system deepens and moves eastward into the central Plains, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms will also expand into the Upper Midwest, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Plains.
In the wake of the dryline across the southern High Plains, low relative humidity and strong winds are anticipated to create critical fire weather conditions on Thursday and Friday. Rapid fire spread is possible, making outdoor burning highly inadvisable. Furthermore, gusts reaching up to 55 mph may cause blowing dust.
Precipitation will also affect other areas of the country. A cold front passing through the Northeast today will bring showers, with potential snow showers in northern New England. The West, Great Basin, and Rockies will experience unsettled weather under the deepening upper trough, with light precipitation that includes some heavy snow in the Rockies' higher elevations by Friday. This active weather pattern will lead to cooler temperatures in the West and Northeast, where a building high-pressure system from Canada will keep the weather chilly through the week's end. Freeze Watches are in effect from the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England due to expected sub-freezing temperatures on Thursday morning. Meanwhile, most of the above-average warmth will be concentrated in the Plains, with high temperatures in the 80s expected to continue across the Southern Tier States until Friday.
For cattle producers, these weather conditions suggest a need for vigilance in monitoring both severe weather potential and fire risks, while also preparing for rapid changes in temperature that could affect livestock comfort and pasture conditions.