Short Range Weather Forecast
Wet Weather Pattern in the West; Severe Storms in the Eastern U.S.
A number of Pacific storm systems will bring excessive rainfall, strong winds, and mountain snow to the West U.S. These systems may cause burn scar flooding impacts. Severe thunderstorms may impact the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into Central/Southern Appalachians, and a portion of west Texas on Thursday.
...Powerful Pacific storm to deliver heavy rain and gusty winds to the Pacific Northwest, Slight Risks for Excessive Rainfall in Northern California and far southwestern Oregon today...
...Severe thunderstorms possible in some eastern regions due to a low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes today; scattered thunderstorms also possible in portions of the Southern Plains today and Friday...
...Abnormally warm conditions in the Rockies and High Plains; warm day along the East Coast today gives way to cooler temps by week's end; cooler in the Midwest and along the West Coast...
A rapidly deepening cyclone in the northeast Pacific responsible for the development of an atmospheric river aimed at the West Coast and coastal British Columbia is set to produce unsettled weather that will arrive in the Pacific Northwest later today. The bouts of rain are a sight for sore eyes in the drought stricken areas of the Northwest with beneficial rainfall totals ranging between 2 to 5 inches in the higher elevations of Northern California and southwestern Oregon. However, locally heavy rainfall rates atop burn scarred areas could lead to flash flooding, rapid runoff, and debris flows in these locations. Slight Risks for Excessive Rainfall have been issued for a handful of areas in Northern California and far southwestern Oregon along with Flash Flood Watches in parts of the northern Sierra Nevada. As the upper low associated with this Pacific storm moves ashore Thursday night, snow levels will drop throughout the night and into Friday as it also aids in pushing precipitation farther inland. Despite the falling snow levels, snow totals will generally be light with the lone exceptions being the highest peaks of mountain ranges that include the northern Sierra Nevada, the Shastas, and the Cascades. As the storm system pushes into the northern Rockies and gradually weakens, the next Pacific low pressure system is hot on its heels as it ushers in more unsettled weather into the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
Meanwhile, a vigorous upper level disturbance in the Midwest early this morning will track east underneath a large upper low spinning over northern Ontario. The surface low is forecast to strengthen as it tracks through the Great Lakes and its associated cold front sweeps across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Thunderstorms firing out ahead of the cold front could be severe, prompting the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Marginal risk for severe weather from the eastern Great Lakes on south into the Tennessee Valley. Severe storms are also possible in West Texas where a modestly unstable air-mass will be in place. After spotty showers and thunderstorms track through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Thursday night, the cold front reaches the East Coast by Friday afternoon. Some severe storms could occur in eastern North Carolina and South Florida Friday afternoon. Farther west, a warm front pushing north through the Southern Plains could trigger hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and into Friday night.
Temperatures will be warmest in the Intermountain West and Great Plains as upper level ridging builds aloft downwind of the robust upper trough in the northeast Pacific. Friday's high temps will be quite warm from the Southern Plains to the plains of Montana. The hottest temperatures are expected along the Rio Grande River where highs could hit 90 degrees. The East Coast rebounds to more September-like levels of heat today before the aforementioned cold front sends a shot or more autumn-like conditions, currently located in the Midwest, into the Great Lakes and Northeast for Friday and into the upcoming weekend. Expect the Deep South to remain on the abnormally warm side through the end of the work-week. Lastly, the West Coast will contend with persistent cloud cover thanks to the series of systems causing onshore flow. Temperatures ranging between 5 to 15 degrees cooler than average are expected with the coldest anomalies focused in Northern California.
(Short Range Public Discussion)