Schwieterman Grain Comments

The past few days of trade has the charts looking like the March contract is attempting to break out to the upside, while the December is on the verge of another leg lower.

Schwieterman Grain Commentary

Corn
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Overnight Trade: H -2 @7:30 AM

The corn market saw a set back overnight. There has been a great deal of bull spreading the past two months, so the March contract looks much better on the chart than the new crop December. The past few days of trade has the charts looking like the March contract is attempting to break out to the upside, while the December is on the verge of another leg lower. Old crop basis is still tremendous and export sales have improved, while the trade fears expanded corn acreage.

Wheat
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H -4 KC: H -8 @7:30 AM

Yesterday the March KW stalled out right around the 50-day moving average and the market has since backed off. So far it is just an inside day on the chart, which suggests we still have potential for further strength, but the failure at the 50-day moving average is bothersome. Strength in the Dollar and weakness in the corn and soybeans won’t help the case for the wheat today, so plan on a consolidation session.

Soybeans
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term:  Up
Overnight Trade: H -5 @7:30 AM

March soybeans made a new high for the move overnight before settling back to negative territory. If you are bullish, you are looking for a new contract high because export sales are better than expected. If you are bearish, you are looking at a potential head-and-shoulders top and the better weather in Argentina. Today’s close  will be a key in how those two potential scenario’s play out.

Schwieterman
Bret Crotts
620-275-4133
888-437-9131
bret@swbell.net