Peel: Plenty of Beef for Independence Day
In
anticipation of July 4, estimated beef production for the week ending
June 27 was 562.3 million pounds, up 5.3 percent year over year. This
was based on estimated weekly slaughter of 680,000 head, 1.5 percent
over year ago levels and includes an estimated Saturday slaughter of
82,000 head, up 39 percent year over year. The large Saturday slaughter
was scheduled for last week since the holiday this week is on Saturday.
The actual slaughter and beef production data for the week ending June
13, confirmed that beef production exceeded year ago production levels
by 0.7 percent, the first year over year weekly beef production increase
since the first week of April.
After the disappointing shortages
and high beef prices during Memorial Day, the improved beef situation
for this grilling holiday is a great relief. Grocery stores should be
well stocked in time for July 4 and retail prices are adjusting down
rapidly. For individual stores, it may depend on their particular
supply arrangements. Retail price adjustments are following rapid
decreases in wholesale beef prices. Choice boxed beef prices increased
from a pre-COVID-199 level of $208.14/cwt. on March 13 to a daily peak
of $475.39 on April 12 and back to $207.17/cwt. last Friday, June 26.
Other
meat is plentiful as well. The June Hog and Pig report pegged the
total hog inventory at 79.6 million head, up 5.2 percent year over year.
Table 1 shows forecasts for increased pork production through 2020,
with a brief modest contraction in early 2021. The broiler industry
decreased placement of chicks in finishing barns in April and May, which
will lead to a modest decrease in broiler production in the third
quarter. However, total production for beef, pork and broilers is
projected to increase to a new annual record in 2020 (Table 1).
Current forecasts for 2021 project a decrease in annual beef production
but continued increases in pork and broiler production leading to
another record level of total meat production.
--Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist