Pears: World Markets & Trade

Pears: World Markets & Trade

Turkey Pears Expand Global Presence

Turkey is currently ranked fifth among pear producers and seventh among exporters after significant growth over the past 5 years.  In the first half of the last decade, Turkey’s production was range-bound from 440,000-470,000 tons and exports saw minimal growth.  But starting in 2017/18, both production and exports saw a sharp rise and since then have seen almost non-stop growth.

Turkey produces domestic and foreign pear varieties which are grown predominantly in the northwest region of Marmara, followed by the Aegean and Mediterranean regions.  But due to rising demand in export markets, an increasing number of orchards are seeing non-commercial varieties replaced with those preferred by consumers in export markets.  The number of export markets has grown from less than 40 in 2012/13 to more than 50 by 2020/21.  This continued success and rising demand are spurring growers to also expand operations and invest in new  orchards.  Though modest, growth in acreage has been steady since 2016/17, averaging about 3 percent per year, with production surpassing 500,000 tons for the first time in 2017/18.  Outputhas continued to edge higher, reaching a peak of 550,000 tons in 2020/21. Though unfavorable weather is expected to reduce output slightly in 2021/22, production should continue to rise in the future as new plantings come online.

Turkey has been a top exporter for more than 10 years, but as with production, 2017/18  marked a significant upward turn.  Prior to this point, annual exports averaged less than 20,000 tons and 4 percent of production, but 2017/18 saw exports nearly triple from 16,000 tons to 44,000, and annual growth in most subsequent years has been above 20 percent.  Export markets also shifted for Turkey beginning in 2017/18.  The European Union was Turkey’s top destination in 2012/13, accounting for 45 percent of exports, but Russia become the top market in 2017/18 at 36 percent market share.  Within 5 years, Turkey’s market share in Russia rose from less than 1 percent in 2016/17 to 12 percent in 2020/21.  Iraq is Turkey’s second- largest market averaging 28 percent, while the European Union is third averaging 18 percent.  Higher supplies have enabled trade success, but even with lower output in 2021/22, exports are still expected to surge 30 percent to 95,000 tons on strong demand from top markets Russia and Iraq.  If  realized, this would be almost 20 percent of production and a third straight year of record exports.  It remains to be seen how the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacts future growth.

FRESH PEARS

World production for 2021/22 is expected to rise over 900,000 tons to 23.5 million as recovering supplies in China more than offset weather-related losses in the European Union.    Imports are projected down on reduced demand from Russia.

China production is projected up 1.5 million tons to a record 18.0 million as Hebei province rebounds from last year’s severe frost and Xinjiang province experiences a bumper crop.   Exports are expected to modestly rebound on higher supplies, spurred by higher shipments to Indonesia.  However, COVID-19-related shipping challenges are expected to hinder shipments to other Asia markets, keeping exports at 500,000 tons, a gain of 20,000.

EU production is expected to see a drop of over 25 percent to 1.7 million tons as snow, frost, and cold temperatures impacted crops for several top producer Member States, especially Italy and France.  Exports are expected to decline 20 percent to 300,000 tons, a fourth straight year of declines.  Lower domestic supplies will propel imports higher to 185,000 tons.

U.S. production is expected to rise 40,000 tons to 633,000, as gains in California and Oregon offset losses in Washington.  Both Washington and Oregon saw high temperatures and low rainfall, but late summer rain led to good quality fruit.  USDA’s NASS surveyed industry and updated U.S. production in the May 2022 Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2021 Summary report.  

Exports are projected nearly flat at 107,000 tons as gains to Mexico are offset by reduced shipments to other top markets.  Imports are lower at 70,000 tons as higher domestic supplies are anticipated to dampen demand for Southern Hemisphere supplies.

South Africa production is projected up 35,000 tons to 510,000, a third-straight year of record output.  New plantings continue to come online, while the season also saw good growing conditions and increased irrigation on good winter rainfall.  Higher supplies are expected to lift exports only slightly to 260,000 tons as reduced shipments to Russia dampen greater gains.  
 
Chile production is expected to continue its downward trend, slipping 16,000 tons to 217,000 as acreage shrinks for a fifth consecutive year.  Following the decline in production, reduced volumes are expected to pressure exports lower to 110,000 tons.

Argentina production is anticipated to ease slightly to 584,000 tons due to an October frost following very good fruit blossom.  Acreage is expected to hold steady after years of decline, but a persistent lack of resources continues to prevent investments to maintain orchards and improve yields.   Exports are projected down to 265,000 tons on lower output and reduced shipments to Russia, which  typically occur February through June.
 
Russia imports are projected to drop to their lowest level since 2001/02,plunging over 30 percent to 160,000 tons.  Reduced shipments are expected from Argentina and Belarus,  more than offsetting gains from Turkey, lowering Russia’s rank in world imports from first to third.