Outlook For U.S. Ag Imports

Outlook For U.S. Ag Imports

In FY 2023, total agricultural imports are expected to increase $5.0 billion above the FY 2022 forecast—to $197.0 billion—due to higher imports of grains and feed products, horticultural products, and sugar and tropical products. Total imports in FY 2022 are expected to be $11.5 billion more than the May forecast and $28.7 billion more than FY 2021. If realized, the 18-percent jump in FY 2022 import values would be the largest year-over-year percentage increase since FY 2011.

The historically large increase from FY 2021 to FY 2022 is a product of the unwavering upward trend of import volumes in the face of increasing unit values for nearly every agricultural import product group. Similarly, the large increase in the current FY 2022 forecast from the May FY 2022 forecast results from import volumes of nearly all product groups continuing to increase despite increasing unit values of most import products over the first three quarters of FY 2022 with the notable exception of livestock and meat prices which showed a mix of increases and decreases across products in the third quarter.

Horticultural product imports are expected to reach $99.3 billion in FY 2023. This would be approximately $2.9 billion above FY 2022 forecasts and $13.2 billion higher than FY 2021 totals. The new FY 2022 forecast also represents an upward adjustment of $4.2 billion from the previous forecast.

In FY 2023, values of fresh fruit imports are expected to grow by $200 million over FY 2022 values to $18.3 billion. Fresh fruit forecast volumes are adjusted upward from the previous forecast, which—coupled with increasing unit values—are expected to increase over FY 2022 import values to $18.1 billion. Although fresh fruit imports for commodities such as bananas, avocados, and blueberries continue their upward trend, reduced U.S. production of citrus due to poor weather conditions also contributed to increased reliance on fruit imports in FY 2022. Import values of nuts are expected to decrease by $700 million in FY 2022 to $3.1 billion. As the inflationary pressures of the moment begin to ease, unit values are expected to regulate, resulting in a $2.8-billion decrease in FY 2023.

Processed fruit imports for FY 2022 are expected to be higher than the previous forecast to $8.1 billion as fruit juice import volumes increased over their previous trend in early 2022. An additional $100-million increase is expected for FY 2023 for total processed fruit imports of $8.2 billion due to continuing increases of frozen, prepared, and preserved fruit imports.

Fresh vegetable imports are expected to increase by $600 million from FY 2021 to FY 2022—to $11.1 billion—and are expected to further increase to $11.6 billion in FY 2023 as strong demand for these goods—led by tomatoes, bell peppers, and asparagus—continues its long-running upward trend. Processed vegetable imports are forecast at $7.3 billion for FY 2022 and are expected to increase to $7.7 billion in FY 2023. Largely consisting of frozen, prepared, and preserved vegetables, this is another category of import goods that is expected to continue its upward trend.

The FY 2022 wine forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast of $7.7 billion. Beer and distilled spirits, however, are forecast to increase by $200 million and $800 million, respectively. Increases for each of these commodity imports is expected in FY 2023 with wine increasing to $8.1 billion, beer growing to $6.9 billion, and distilled spirits reaching $12.1 billion.

Imports of cut flowers and nursery stock and essential oils are expected to increase in FY 2022 and FY 2023. Essential oil imports from the EU and India have increased in value leading to a $600 million upward adjustment of the FY 2022 forecast—to $5.0 billion—from the previous forecast and another increase to $5.3 billion for FY 2023. Cut flowers and nursery stock imports from South America also increased in value prompting an increase beyond the previous FY 2022 forecast of $300 million to $3.4 billion, and another $300 million increase to $3.7 billion in FY 2023.

Record-high domestic prices boost imports of sugar and tropical products as the FY 2022 is raised by $1.9 billion to $28.4 billion, and FY 2023 imports are forecast at $30.2 billion. Sweeteners and products are raised by $600 million to $6.5 billion for FY 2022 and forecast at $7.1 billion for FY 2023. The cocoa and cocoa products forecasts for FY 2022 are increased to $5.8 billion with the FY 2023 forecast set at $6.0 billion. Coffee and coffee products forecasts are adjusted upward by $1.0 billion for FY 2022 to $9.0 billion on increased import volumes and unit values. Coffee and coffee product imports in FY 2023 are forecast at $10.0 billion. The forecast for FY 2022 for livestock, poultry, and dairy imports is raised by $1.1 billion from the previous forecast to $26.7 billion on higher dairy, pork, and poultry and product imports.

Dairy imports are forecast $500 million higher to $4.6 billion on stronger shipments from the EU. Pork imports are forecast $300 million higher to $2.8 billion as tight U.S. supplies continue to spur trade at higher prices. Poultry and poultry product imports are forecast $100 million higher to $1.3 billion as tight U.S. supplies and elevated prices generate opportunities for foreign suppliers. Live swine and cattle imports are unchanged. Beef imports are forecast down $500 million to $9.0 billion.

For FY 2023, the forecast for U.S. imports of livestock, dairy, and poultry products is decreased by $400 million fiscal year over fiscal year to $26.3 billion as increases in live cattle imports fail to offset declines in other products. Beef imports are lowered by $500 million from the FY 2022 forecast to $8.5 billion despite higher unit values as tight global supplies limit import quantities. The FY 2023 dairy import forecast is lowered by $300 million to $4.3 billion, largely on weaker values. Lower prices push pork imports $100 million lower to $2.7 billion. Live swine imports and poultry and products are unchanged. Cattle imports are raised $400 million to $2.2 billion as tight U.S. supplies will spur imports from Canada and Mexico at higher prices.