Oil Crops Outlook: International

Argentine Soybean Production and Crush Lowered

The 2022/23 global soybean production forecast is down from last month’s forecast by 0.5 million metric tons to 390.5 million metric tons. A 1.5-million-metric-ton decrease in the  Argentine production forecast is partially offset by increases in the United States and South Africa.

Although the Argentine soybean yield forecast remains unchanged at 3 metric tons per hectare, a 0.5-million-hectare decrease in the harvested area to 16.5 million hectares has driven down production to 49.5 million metric tons. As a result of lower soybean supply, Argentine soybean crush is forecast down by 0.8 million metric tons to 39.8 million metric tons this month. The reduction in Argentina’s soybean crush is partially offset by anticipated increases of soybean crush in the United States, Brazil, and South Africa. Soybean crush in Brazil has been revised this month by 0.3 million metric tons and is expected to reach a record 51.8 million metric tons.

Similarly, South Africa is projected to process 1.8 million metric tons of soybean, a record as well. The increase in soybean crush in the United States, Brazil, and South Africa does not offset the decline in Argentine crush, hence the 2022/23 global soybean crush forecast is lowered 0.2 million metric tons this month to 329.3 million metric tons.

Global soybean exports have been revised up marginally this month by 0.3 million metric tons to 169.1 million metric tons on the heels of higher soybean exports from Argentina and South Africa. Argentina’s soybean exports are revised up this month by 0.2 million metric tons and expected to reach 7.2 million metric tons.

The 2022/23 soybean ending stock estimate is increased from October’s projection by 1.7 million metric tons to 102.2 million metric tons mainly due to higher stocks in the United States and China. China’s stocks were revised up 1.0 million metric tons this month as China’s final soybean imports for 2021/22 were higher than expected, raising 2022/23 beginning stocks.

Higher Yields Boost Global Rapeseed Production

The 2022/23 forecast of global rapeseed production is increased by 1 million metric tons to 84.8 million metric tons this month as crops in Australia, the European Union (EU), and Uruguay are revised upwards. For Australia, rapeseed production is forecast to reach a new national record of 7.3 million metric tons, which is 0.6 million metric tons higher than last month’s forecast. The favorable growing conditions observed in West Australia, New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia contribute to high rapeseed yields in those States and bring the national rapeseed yield to level of 2.03 metric tons per hectare. This is shy of last year’s record yield of 2.1 metric tons per hectare.

As a result of higher rapeseed supply in Australia, both export and crush are raised this month by 0.2 million metric tons. Exports are predicted to reach 5.2 million metric tons, slightly below last year’s record of 5.3 million metric tons. The crush is forecasted at 1.1 million metric tons, matching last year’s level.

In addition to the increased rapeseed production in Australia, the EU’s rapeseed crop is up by 0.4 million metric tons this month to 19.5 million metric tons. The increase is due to higher-thanexpected rapeseed yields in Germany, France, and Denmark. As a result of the higher supply, the EU’s rapeseed import forecast is revised down this month by 0.2 million metric tons and is expected to reach 5.3 million metric tons. Furthermore, the EU’s rapeseed ending stocks for the 2022/23 marketing year are projected to be higher this month, reaching 0.8 million metric tons.The projected growth in global rapeseed production for the 2022/23 marketing year exceeds the growth in global rapeseed demand; hence, global rapeseed ending stocks are expected to rebound to 7.2 million metric tons from last year’s low level of 4.4 million metric tons that was caused by drought.