Mid-Year Cattle Report Returns with New Insights on Herd Dynamics

James Mitchell, Livestock Marketing Specialist, University of Arkansas

Two key reports were released on Friday that provide new insights into cattle herd dynamics and feedlot inventories. USDA-NASS published the mid-year Cattle Inventory report and the monthly Cattle on Feed report. Notably, we did not have a July Cattle Inventory report last year, as it was one of several reports USDA-NASS suspended due to budget constraints. Fortunately, the report was brought back this year. As such, comparisons in this article will reference data from July 2023.

The report estimates July 2025 cattle inventories at 94.2 million head, down 1.3% (or 1.2 million head) from July 2023. The total number of cows and heifers that have calved was 38.1 million head, a 0.8% decline from the July 2023 total of 38.4 million. Beef cows totaled 28.7 million head on July 1, 2025, down 1.2% compared to two years ago. Note, as with the January Cattle Inventory report, USDA can revise prior-year estimates in the July report. In this case, USDA revised the July 2023 beef cow inventory downward by 1.2 million head, which reduces the apparent decline in beef cow numbers from two years ago.

The 2025 calf crop is estimated at 33.1 million head, 1.3% smaller than the 2024 calf crop. This total includes 24.3 million calves born in the first half of the year and an expected 8.8 million to be born in the second half.

Most were looking to this report for signs of herd expansion. One variable to look at is the number of beef replacement heifers. NASS estimated 3.7 million beef heifers held for replacement, a 2.6% decrease from 2023.

The July Cattle on Feed report also includes the number of heifers on feed, which allows us to calculate their share of total feedlot inventories. In July 2025, heifers on feed were estimated at 4.24 million head, accounting for 38.1% of total feedlot inventories. This is down from 39.6% in July 2024, suggesting a pullback in heifers entering feedlots. For context, in 2015, heifers made up just 32.5% of feedlot inventories, so don’t overreact to the estimates in this month’s report, though it is an important data point.

Source: University of Arkansas