Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook

Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook (April)

Total Red Meat and Poultry Production Projected To Grow Again in 2024 After Last Year’s Decline

Total red meat and poultry production is forecast to increase 0.84 percent in 2024. This follows a year of decreased production in 2023, the first since 2014. Increased production of pork, broilers, and turkeyin 2023 were all offset by a large decline in beef production. Looking to 2024, beef production is again forecast to fall due to tightening cattle supplies, with turkey production expected to be slightly lower as well. However, these decreases are anticipated to be more than offset by higher pork and broiler production, raising total red meat and poultry production by nearly 1 percent.

Beef/Cattle: A temporal shift of cattle slaughter from early to late 2024, as well as higher expected fed cattle weights, helped boost the beef production forecast by 130 million pounds to 26.455 billion pounds, though still down 2 percent from last year. Fed cattle prices are raised about $2 from last month to $185.00, about 5 percent above prices in 2023. U.S. beef exports in February were 244 million pounds, almost 3 percent above same-period shipments last year and higher than expectations. This prompted a 20-million-pound increase of the first-quarter export forecast to 740 million pounds, 5 percent less than a year ago. The beef import forecast is unchanged from last month. 

Dairy: The 2024 milk production forecast has been lowered to 226.3 (-1.0) billion pounds due to slower anticipated milk yield per cow, with cow numbers remaining unchanged. Dairy product price forecasts show mixed changes from last month’s forecasts with Cheddar cheese at $1.620 (-9.0 cents), dry whey at $0.425 (-2.5 cents), butter at $2.925 (+12.5 cents), and nonfat dry milk (NDM) at $1.180 (-3.0 cents) per pound. The Class III milk forecast is now $16.20 per hundredweight (cwt), down $0.95 due to lower cheese and dry whey prices. Despite lower NDM price forecast, the Class IV price forecast has risen to $20.40 per cwt, up $0.30 due to higher butter prices. The all-milk price for 2024 is projected at $20.90 per cwt, down $0.35 from the previous month’s forecast. 

Pork/Hogs: The December Hogs and Pigs report showed 1 percent more market hogs than a year ago and just 2 percent fewer breeding animals. Adjusting quarterly pork production forecasts to information in the report resulted in a 2024 production increase of 180 million pounds, with an increase of more than $4 per cwt in average 2024 hog prices. Strong February pork exports prompted the addition of 210 million pounds to the 2024 export forecast. U.S. pork exports in 2024 are expected to be 7.3 billion pounds, almost 8 percent higher than last year. 

Poultry/Eggs: Broiler production in 2024 is adjusted up on strong average weights and hatchery data, as well as on favorable feed prices. Projected broiler exports are adjusted down on recent data, while projected wholesale broiler prices are adjusted up on recent data and strong demand. Projected table egg production in 2024 is adjusted down based on recent losses due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Projected 2024 egg prices are adjusted up on recent data and lower supply expectations. Egg and egg product exports were adjusted up slightly for 2024 on recent data. Estimated turkey production was adjusted up slightly in the first quarter of 2024 on stronger-than-previously-expected February production. Projected turkey exports are unchanged, while projected imports are lowered on decreased shipments from Chile. Projected turkey prices are adjusted down for 2024 on recent data and weaker demand.