Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Livestock and Poultry:  World Markets and Trade

Global Meat Markets: A Competitive Landscape

The global meat industry is witnessing significant shifts and challenges as leading exporters navigate changing dynamics in the pork, beef, and chicken segments. The competition for dominance among major players intensifies, reshaping forecasts and export strategies.

Pork: U.S. and EU in a Tight Race

The revised 2024 forecast for pork shipments reveals a remarkable convergence between the United States and the European Union, the world's top two pork exporters. The gap between their export volumes has narrowed, with both experiencing downward revisions compared to the October forecast. The U.S. sees a modest 1 percent decrease, while the EU faces a slightly steeper 3 percent revision.

The primary driver behind these downward adjustments is weakened demand from China, the globe's largest pork importer. This reduced demand poses challenges for both the U.S. and the EU, especially given China's substantial share of their total pork exports. In 2022, the U.S. sent 10 percent of its total pork exports to China, while the EU's exports to China accounted for a significant 27 percent.

Moreover, EU production has seen a decline in recent years, contributing to tightened exportable supplies. In contrast, the U.S. anticipates growth in production, enhancing its competitiveness in various markets.

Beef: Production Dynamics and Global Exports

Production Insights

Global beef production for 2024 witnesses a 1 percent upward revision to 59.5 million tons, fueled by positive adjustments for the United States and Australia. However, challenges persist for Argentina and the EU, contributing to declines. Brazil's production forecast remains unchanged.

The U.S. anticipates a year-on-year production decline, while Australia experiences herd liquidation offset by increased slaughter levels. Argentina faces lower production due to tight cattle supplies, while the EU sees a dip amid herd contraction and subdued consumer demand.

Export Trends

Global beef exports for 2024 are revised 1 percent higher to 12.1 million tons, with Brazil and Australia benefiting from robust global demand. Brazil faces constraints due to U.S. beef import quotas, while Australia enjoys duty-free access under the U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement. China's demand outlook shows improvement despite slower economic growth.

Chicken Meat: Balancing Production and Exports

Production Dynamics

Global chicken meat production for 2024 remains virtually unchanged at 103.3 million tons. The U.S. witnesses a slight downward revision, offset by upward adjustments for the EU and the UK. Brazil and China's production forecasts remain steady.

Export Challenges

Global chicken meat exports for 2024 are revised 1 percent lower to 13.9 million tons. Brazil and the U.S. face challenges in the export market due to reduced shipments to key destinations like Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Japan. Brazil, despite a downward revision, continues to dominate world trade.

In conclusion, the global meat markets are undergoing dynamic shifts, with the pork segment witnessing a tightening competition between the U.S. and EU. Beef production and exports face diverse challenges and opportunities, while the chicken meat sector grapples with export adjustments influenced by changing demand patterns. The ability to adapt to these evolving dynamics will be key for meat-producing nations in maintaining their competitive edge on the world stage.