Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
World Trade Outlook Relatively Unchanged While Brazil Makes Gains
The outlook for global meat trade remains relatively unchanged from the prior (April) forecast. Beef and chicken meat exports are not significantly revised while pork is raised 2 percent from the last forecast. However, Brazil continues to make export gains and set new records for beef, pork, and chicken meat.
Brazil beef exports are revised 1 percent higher to 3.1 million tons on greater production and firm China demand. Brazil cattle prices have declined significantly compared to main competitors – Uruguay and Argentina – and lower beef prices support shipments to Southeast Asia, South America, and Middle East markets.
Brazil chicken meat exports are revised 2 percent higher to 4.8 million tons on firm shipments to Asia, the Middle East, and smaller developing markets. As of July 12, Brazil remains free of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in commercial operations and does not face restrictions as key competitors do.
Brazil pork exports are revised 8 percent higher to 1.5 million tons on strong exports to most Asia markets, including particularly robust shipments to China and Hong Kong. Declining feed prices in Brazil are anticipated to further incentivize production and bolster price competitiveness.
Global beef production for 2023 is revised nearly 1 percent higher from the April forecast to 59.6 million tons. Drought has induced more herd liquidation in Argentina, raising its production 6 percent from the April forecast. Similarly, larger feedlot placements and higher cow slaughter are expected to boost U.S. production by 1 percent from April. New Zealand production is raised 3 percent as male dairy calves are now marketed for beef. EU production is cut 1 percent on lower slaughter and lighter weights due to high input costs.
Global beef exports for 2023 are virtually unchanged from the April forecast at 12.1 million tons. Upward revisions in the forecasts for New Zealand, Australia, Argentina, and Brazil offset declines in forecasts for Mexico, United Kingdom (UK), and the EU. Firm China demand is expected to attract Brazil and Argentina shipments. Australia will benefit from rising Japan and South Korea demand. In addition, robust U.S. demand for processing beef will bolster Australia and New Zealand shipments. A strengthening peso weakens Mexico’s export outlook. Waning EU demand hampers UK exports while lower EU production depresses EU shipments.
Global pork production for 2023 is virtually unchanged from the April forecast at 114.8 million tons. Increases in the production forecast for China, Canada, and Brazil offset declines in EU, Japan, the Philippines, and Mexico. Despite mostly negative margins industry-wide, China production is higher on greater than previously expected slaughter as producers seek to reduce herds and maintain cash flow. EU production continues to wane due to pressure from environmental regulation, weaker consumption, and relatively elevated feed costs. Philippines pork production is lowered 3 percent due to the expansion of African swine fever in key production regions.
Global pork exports for 2023 are forecast 2 percent higher from the April forecast to 10.8 million tons as stronger shipments from the United States and Brazil more than offset declines from Canada, UK, and EU. Reduced EU pork supplies provide opportunities for the United States and Brazil to gain market share in several Asia markets including South Korea and the Philippines. Strong demand from China has benefited most major pork exporters year to date.
Global chicken meat production for 2023 is little changed from the April forecast at 103.5 million tons. Production by Brazil, EU, and China were not revised on a continued outlook for improved feed prices and as no major outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have been reported.
Global chicken meat exports for 2023 are raised less than 1 percent from the April forecast to 13.8 million tons. Shipments by Brazil are revised 2 percent higher to 4.8 million tons on stronger shipments to Asia, the Middle East, and smaller non-traditional markets. Brazil expansion is supported by the absence of HPAI in commercial operations, competitive prices, and extensive product offerings fulfilling the needs of various markets. Thailand is raised 5 percent higher to 1.1 million tons on increasing shipments of uncooked chicken meat to Asia including Japan, China, and South Korea.