Feed Outlook: Domestic

U.S. Feed Supplies Are Reduced on Significant Cuts to Corn, Sorghum Harvested Area

U.S. corn production for the 2022/23 marketing year (September/August) is reduced 200 million bushels this month to 13,730 million bushels as a sharp decline in harvested area more than offset an upward revision in yield. Total corn use is projected to fall to 13,915 million bushels—down 185 million bushels from USDA’s December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report—due to reductions in both domestic use and exports. The January forecast for 2022/23 corn ending stocks is 1,242 million bushels (down 15 million bushels from last month).

U.S. sorghum production is revised down 48 million bushels from last month (to 188 million bushels) as a 1.9-bushel-per-acre yield reduction compounded a revised loss of 900,000 harvested acres. The sorghum ending stocks forecast is up slightly from last month to 25 million bushels for the marketing year, as lower exports more than offset tight supplies. The outlook for barley ending stocks fell slightly from December (to 61 million bushels) while oat ending stocks saw a modest upward revision (to 32 million bushels).

Global coarse grain prospects in 2022/23 are projected down 7.3 million tons this month. U.S. corn and sorghum production and exports are lowered. Argentine and Brazilian corn production are also lowered due to drought conditions in this South American region. Argentine corn exports are reduced, while Ukrainian and Brazilian corn exports are projected higher. Chinese sorghum imports are projected lower.

Corn Supplies for 2022/23 Are Reduced in January Due to a Steep Decline in Harvested Area

The January WASDE report projects lower corn supplies in the U.S. corn market, along with lower use across most categories. Based on January’s corn production estimates in the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) Crop Production 2022 Summary report, this month’s WASDE report forecasts corn supplies for 2022/23 at 15,157 million bushels—a 1.3-percent cut from the December projection and the lowest level since 2013/14, if realized. The change is driven by a 2-percent reduction in harvested area month over month, which represents the sharpest decline between NASS’s November forecast and January estimate in at least 10 years. U.S. farmers are reported to have harvested 79.2 million acres of corn in 2022/23—down 7 percent from last year and the lowest estimate since 2008/09. The 9.37 million acre difference between planted and harvested area is substantially higher (21 percent) than the previous 10-year average of 8.0 million acres (on larger than normal abandonment).

The national average corn yield estimate increased 1 bushel per acre from last month to 173.3 bushels per acre for 2022/23. January’s upward revision slightly reversed the downward trend in the NASS yield forecasts seen from August to November 2022, as dryness worsened toward the end of the growing season in key corn-producing States. However, the magnitude of reduction to harvested acres far outweighed national yield gains and the January corn production estimate (of 13,730 million bushels) is down 9 percent from last year and 4 percent below the 5-year average.

At the State level, compared with the previous NASS forecasts published in November 2022, the most significant production cuts are seen in: Nebraska (down 107 million bushels), Kansas (down 81.6 million bushels), North Dakota (down 36.3 million bushels), Iowa (down 34.9 million bushels), and Colorado (down 17.8 million bushels). In 2022/23, Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado saw the largest declines in corn production relative to both last year and the 5-year average. Corn farmers harvested 1,455 million bushels in Nebraska (down 22 percent from last year and 18 percent from the 5-year average), 511 million bushels in Kansas (down 32 percent from last year and 30 percent from the 5-year average), and 119 million bushels in Colorado (down 20 percent from last year and 23 percent from the 5-year average). All three States saw significant declines in both yield and harvested area.