Feed Outlook: Domestic

Projected corn production is raised to 15,019 million bushels for 2021/22, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s most recent Crop Production report.

Projected U.S. Feed Grain Supply Slightly Higher for 2021/22 on More Production and Carryin

Projected corn production is raised to 15,019 million bushels for 2021/22, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s most recent Crop Production report. Projected corn use for 2021/22 is lowered to 14,780 million bushels, with lower domestic use partially offset by higher exports. The projected season-average farm price for 2021/22 remains at $5.45 per bushel—an increase from the $4.53 per bushel reported for 2020/21. Projected sorghum production for 2021/22 is raised to 471 million bushels on higher yield forecasts. Projected feed and residual use and ending stocks are both raised, as well, with the season-average farm price lowered from $5.85 per bushel to $5.45.

World 2021/22 coarse grain production is projected lower this month. While foreign corn production revisions are mostly offsetting, output for all other coarse grain is projected lower. U.S. corn exports are projected higher, while trade-year-basis foreign corn grain trade is reduced—led by lower Brazilian, Russian, and Ukrainian exports. Barley trade is partly shifting from Canada and Russia to Australia, as the latter continues to reshape its barley export trade map in response to China’s imposition of tariffs on Australian barley that render imports by private enterprises economically unviable.

U.S. Corn Production Raised Slightly for 2021/22

Corn supplies are projected to be higher in 2021/22 according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), with both beginning stocks and production slightly higher than the previous report. Corn production in 2021/22 is projected to total 15,019 million bushels according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) latest Crop Production report. The total represents a 23-million-bushel increase from the September Crop Production report.

The increase in projected production is due to a raised national yield forecast—now at 176.5 bushels per acre compared with the September forecast of 176.3 bushels. Area harvested remains unchanged from September at 85.1 million acres.

The corn harvest continues to move at a steady rate through early October. According to NASS’s Crop Progress report, through October 3, the U.S. corn harvest was 29 percent complete compared with 15 percent in 2020/21 and a post-2005 average of 21 percent. The same trends hold for most of the major corn-producing States as well—with the harvest pace ahead of 2020/21 and in line with longer-term averages. The trends in the Crop Progress report are corroborated by NASS’s Objective Yield Survey data in the Crop Production report. The report shows that 90 percent of corn samples processed in a lab for the October report were either in the dent or mature stage of development. This rate is consistent with a typical harvest.

Yield forecasts in the Eastern Corn Belt were reduced, including in: Illinois (down 4 bushels per acre to 210), Indiana (down 3 bushels per acre to 194), and Ohio (down 2 bushels per acre to 188). Changes to forecasts for Western Corn Belt States were predominantly raised, including: Iowa (raised 3 bushels per acre to 201), Minnesota (raised 4 bushels per acre to 178), Nebraska (raised 2 bushels acre to 190), while South Dakota remained unchanged at 133 bushels per acre.