Cotton Outlook: International

Global Cotton Production Forecast Higher in 2022/23

World cotton production is projected at 118.5 million bales this season, 1.4 million bales above last month’s projection and 2.7 million bales above 2021/22. With the exception of the United States, larger cotton crops are forecast for the major cotton-producing countries in 2022/23. World cotton harvested area in 2022/23 is forecast at approximately 32.7 million hectares (80.1million acres), slightly above 2021/22—with a large increase in India and smaller increases elsewhere offsetting the large year-to-year decrease in harvested area in the United States. Meanwhile, the global cotton yield is forecast at 788 kilograms (kg) per hectare (703 pounds per acre) in 2022/23, about 2.4 percent above the previous 3-year average.

For India 2022/23 cotton area is projected at 13 million hectares (32 million acres), up 0.85 million hectares (2.1 million acres) from last year as more normal weather patterns allowed cotton plantings to rebound in key regions. With harvested area forecast higher in 2022/23 andthe national yield also projected 7 percent higher at 461 kg per hectare, India’s cotton crop is projected at 27.5 million bales, 3 million bales (11 percent) above the 2021/22 season. India is expected to account for 24 percent of the global cotton crop in 2022/23 (figure 5).

In China—the projected top producing country this year—2022/23 cotton harvested area is forecast marginally (1.6 percent) higher at 3.15 million hectares (7.8 million acres), with cotton acreage concentrated in the high-yielding Xinjiang region. In addition, growing conditions appear to be favorable in Xinjiang similar to the good conditions of 2020/21, offsetting some drier weather in other regions. As a result, the national yield is forecast at 1,935 kg per hectare in 2022/23, up 2 percent from last season and approaching 2020/21’s record of 1,976 kg per hectare. China’s 2022/23 cotton crop is projected at 28 million bales, compared with last season’s 27 million bales. China is expected to contribute 24 percent of world cotton production in 2022/23.

Production forecasts for other significant cotton countries of Brazil, Australia, and Pakistan are mixed in 2022/23. Brazil production is projected to increase 1.5 million bales (13 percent) from the 2021/22 season to 13 million bales—11 percent of total global cotton production—attributable to a 13 percent rebound in forecast yield at 1,719 kg per hectare and up from 2021/22’s yield of 1,565 kg per hectare. Meanwhile, Australia’s cotton crop is forecast to increase even further in 2022/23, as above normal precipitation and high reservoir levels have continued to support higher cotton area. Australia’s projected area for 2022/23 is 650,000 hectares (1.6 million acres), an 8 percent increase from 2021/22 season and the highest level in 6 years. As a result, Australia’s crop is projected to increase 4 percent to 6 million bales. In contrast, in Pakistan—the world’s fifth largest producer—recent floods and heatwaves have contributed to a 700,000-bale reduction in their crop this month compared to August to 5.5 mllion bales, a reduction of 500,000 bales from the previous year’s crop and the second lowest production level in nearly 40 years.

World Cotton Mill Use Down Slightly in 2022/23

Global cotton mill use in 2022/23 is forecast at 118.6 million bales, down slightly by 0.8 million bales from 2021/22 but remaining similar to recent historically elevated levels. Cotton mill use is forecast to stay similar to last season for each of the major cotton-spinning countries in 2022/23.

For the top six cotton-spinning countries—China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Vietnam—mill use is forecast to account for a combined 82 percent of the world total in 2022/23, similar to last season. For China, cotton mill use is projected at 37.5 million bales in 2022/23, 500,000 bales (1.4 percent) above 2021/22. China is the leading cotton spinner by far, accounting for approximately one-third of global cotton mill use (figure 6). India’s use is forecast at 25 million bales—21 percent of the world total—in 2022/23, the same level as the year before. For Pakistan, 2022/23 cotton mill use is projected to fall 200,000 bales to 10.5 million bales, contributing 9 percent of the global total. Sustained cotton mill use is projected for Bangladesh, Turkey, and Vietnam, with use forecast at 8.5 million bales (7 percent of the world total), 8.5 million bales (7 percent), and 6.8 million bales (6 percent), respectively.