Citrus: World Markets & Trade

South Africa Fresh Orange Production and Exports Climb Higher

Fresh orange production in South Africa is forecast to grow by 6 percent to 1.6 million tons in 2021/22. This boost is based on the growth in harvested area and above-average rainfall throughout the season in the main growing regions. The latter has ensured that there has been sufficient irrigation water and has provided conditions conducive to growth. Oranges are normally harvested between March and September, and the impact of COVID-19 on production, harvesting, and labor has been minimal to date. The production and yield of oranges have grown marginally since 2017/18, due to industry shifts to soft citrus production. South Africa is forecast to be the eighth largest producer in 2021/22 behind Brazil, China, the European Union, Mexico, the United States, Egypt, and Turkey, continuing a trend of the past 7 years.

The orange area harvested is forecast to grow by 2 percent to over 43,000 hectares in 2021/22, from 42,360 hectares in 2020/21, based on the increase in area harvested of seedless orange varieties and late maturing varieties. This rise will be partially offset by the industry shift from orange production to soft citrus in the Western Cape and Limpopo growing regions. Limpopo is the leading growing region for oranges accounting for 48 percent of the total area planted, followed by the Eastern Cape (26 percent), and Western Cape (15 percent). Valencia oranges account for about two-thirds of the total area planted and Navel’s account for the other one-third. The predominant variety planted is the Midnight accounting for 25 percent of the total area planted, followed by the Valencia Late variety at 12 percent, and Delta at 10 percent.

South Africa is forecast to be the second largest exporter in 2021/22 and has been the second largest global orange exporter (behind Egypt) the past 7 years. Exports are forecast to grow by 5 percent to a record 1.36million tons in 2021/22 based on greater supplies. South Africa exports oranges to more than 100 countries around the world.

The European Union remains South Africa’s largest export market for oranges, accounting for over 40percent of total exports. However, these orange exports have been affected by EU concerns over Citrus Black Spot (CBS) and False Codling Moth (Thaumatotibia leucotreta or FCM) in recent years. While the industry has gone to great lengths and expense to ensure compliance with EU requirements, in cases when there are high interceptions, South Africa has in the past voluntarily suspended all exports or exported only from CBS-free areas to prevent the EU from imposing more stringent measures. Starting July 14, 2022, orange imports from countries affected by FCM are required to undergo a precooling requirement this year with additional cold treatment requirements by next season. Shipments to the United States are expected to continue based on the duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). However, a gradual shift from oranges to mandarin exports is expected to continue. South African farmers supplying the U.S. market have been re-planting their orchards from oranges to soft citrus and new orange varieties in response to market preferences and the higher premium received in the United States. Russia has been a major export market, but the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lower exports. South Africa is expected to continue exporting oranges to Russia in 2021/22 albeit fewer due to concerns around payments and shipping delays.

Domestic consumption of oranges accounts for a relatively small share of total supply and usage in South Africa although fresh oranges are the most popular citrus consumed in the nation.

Oranges

Global orange production for 2021/22 is estimated up1.8 million tons from the previous year to 49.0 million as favorable weather in Brazil and Turkey leads to larger crops that more than offset lower production in Egypt, the European Union, and the United States. Most of the higher production is expected to go into processing.

Brazil production is forecast up 15 percent to 16.9million tons as favorable weather during flowering improved fruit set. Consumption is up slightly while fruit for processing is forecast up 21 percent with the jump in available supplies.

China production is projected up slightly to a record7.6 million tons. The forecast is based on higher output in new navel planting areas in Jiangxi and higher yields in Hubei and Hunan provinces, offsetting decreases in southern Jiangxi province where citrus greening disease has affected crops for several years. Consumption is forecast up with the higher production along with less fruit expected to be used for processing. Imports are expected to be down with the higher production and exports are also anticipated to be down with more of the fruit going to consumption.

U.S. production is estimated to drop 13 percent to the lowest level in over 55 years of 3.5 million tons due to poor fruit set in California due to unfavorably dry weather and the continued decline in area and yields in Florida as a result of citrus greening.

Consumption is up with less fruit going to processing and on higher imports to meet consumer demand. Exports are lower with the drop in production.

European Union production is expected to decline 6 percent to 6.1 million tons due to unfavorable weather and a drop in area harvested. Fresh consumption, fruit for processing, and exports are down with the lower supplies. Imports are projected down slightly as orange exports from countries affected by FCM are required to undergo a precooling requirement this year starting July 14, 2022, with additional cold treatment requirements by next season. Egypt and South Africa (especially during the off-season) are expected to continue to be the leading suppliers.

Egypt production is estimated to drop by almost 16 percent to 3.0 million tons due to unfavorable weather during flowering which reduced fruit set. Consumption is estimated lower due to the lower production. Exports are projected down due to lower supplies, but still a greater share of supply is expected to go towards exports and less to domestic consumption in order to meet high global demand for the fruit. Top export markets are expected to include the European Union, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China.

Turkey production is estimated to rise 450,000 tons to 1.8 million due to high yields as a result of favorable weather and higher area. Consumption and exports are up as a result of the increased supplies.

Morocco production is estimated to rise 11 percent to 1.2 million tons due to favorable weather and increased area as new orchards begin production. Consumption and exports are also projected up as a result of the greater supplies. The European Union is expected to be the top export market.

Orange Juice

Global orange juice production for 2021/22 is forecast 12 percent higher to 1.6million tons (65 degrees brix). Higher production in Brazil and Mexico is expected to more than offset U.S. and EU declines. Higher consumption will be supported in part by a drawdown of U.S.stocks. Exports are forecast up with the higher production in Brazil and Mexico.

Brazil production is forecast up 21 percent to 1.1million tons as a result of more oranges available for processing. Similarly, consumption, exports, and stocks are forecast higher with the rise in production. Brazil is by far the largest producer and is projected to account for nearly three-quarters of global orange juice exports.

U.S. production is estimated to fall 17 percent to a record low 190,000 tons due to a drop in oranges available for processing. Despite lower production, consumption is forecast flat on higher imports and lower stocks.

Mexico production is projected to increase by 25 percent to 170,000 tons as a result of more oranges available for processing. Consumption, exports, and stocks are all forecast to climb with the higher supplies. The United States is expected to remain the main export market.

EU production is estimated down by nearly 20 percent to 62,000 tons on a reduced quantity of oranges available for processing. Consumption is down as a result of lower production and imports. Brazil is expected to remain the leading supplier of orange juice to the European Union.

Tangerines/Mandarins

Global production for 2021/22 is estimated up 2.0 million tons to 37.2 million with growth in China expected to more than offset declines in the United States and the European Union. Consumption is estimated at a record high while exports are expected to be flat.

China production is estimated to rise 2.0 million tons to a record 27.0 million as a result of higher yields due to favorable weather and higher area. Consumption is also at a record with the increase in production and lower exports. The Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are expected to remain the top export markets.

EU production is expected to be down slightly to 3.2 million tons as higher production in Italy (favorable weather in Calabria) was not enough to offset lower production in Spain and Greece due to unfavorable weather including hail, heat, and lack of rain. With reduced supplies, consumption and exports are down, and imports are projected up. Morocco and South Africa are anticipated to remain the leading suppliers to the EU market followed by Israel and Turkey.

Turkey production is estimated up 13 percent to a record 1.8 million due to favorable weather and higher area and yields. Consumption is up with the rise in supplies and exports are at a new record.

Morocco production is projected to jump 13 percent to 1.4 million tons due to favorable weather. Consumption is estimated at a record high, and exports are set to rise with the increased production. Top export markets are the European Union, Russia, and the United States.  Exports to Russia were not disrupted due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the shipping season was largely finished prior to the conflict.

U.S. production is estimated to fall by 30 percent to 758,000 tons due to unfavorable weather in California. Consumption is down only slightly on higher imports and less fruit going to processing.  South Africa production is anticipated to continue its aggressive growth, surging by 12 percent to 660,000 tons as a result of improved yields due to favorable weather and higher area. Consumption and exports are estimated to grow with the greater available supplies.

Grapefruit

Global production in 2021/22 is estimated up 4 percent to a record 7.0 million tons due to favorable weather and expanded area in China. Consumption is projected at a record high, and exports are estimated down as nearly all of the higher production goes to domestic consumption.

Lemons/Limes

Global production in 2021/22 is forecast up 6 percent to a record 9.7million tons due to higher production in Argentina, Mexico, Turkey, and the United States. Higher available supplies boost global consumption (to a new record), exports, and fruit for processing.