Cattle Outlook

New World Screwworm 

The recent discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in cattle in the Mexican State of Chiapas has resulted in a restriction on the importation of cattle and bison originating from or transiting through Mexico, effective November 22, 2024. Forecasts in this report reflect this restriction, and in the absence of an official timeline for updated import protocols, these restrictions are assumed to remain in place indefinitely. Subsequent WASDE forecasts will reflect any officially announced changes in policy when they occur. 

2024 Fourth-Quarter Production Adjusted Up Fractionally 

Based on daily and weekly estimated slaughter data for November through early December, steer and heifer slaughter has been at a slightly faster pace than previously expected, which is partially offset by a slower than previously expected pace for bulls. These data also show slightly heavier carcass weights than expected last month. The forecast for fourth-quarter 2024 beef production is moved fractionally higher by 10 million pounds from last month to 6.930 billion pounds, a 2-percent increase from last year. The annual total is updated to 27.035 billion pounds, an increase of 0.3 percent from last year. 

Import Ban Leads to Fewer Cattle Placements, Reducing Anticipated 2025 Fed Cattle Slaughter 

The policy prohibiting live cattle imports from Mexico reduces the previously anticipated cattle placements for the last week of November and December, partially offsetting estimates of larger-than-expected placements in October in the latest Cattle on Feed report from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). According to the report, the November 1 feedlot inventory is estimated at 11.986 million head, less than 1 percent above 11.956 million head in the same month last year. Feedlot net placements1 in October were over 5 percent higher year over year at 2.231 million head. Marketings in October tallied 1.845 million head, also up nearly 5 percent from a year ago. The year-over-year increase in marketings reflects one more available weekday of slaughter compared to last year, which kept the per day marketings on par with last year. Although total inventory is up, Texas, Kansas and Arizona have fewer cattle on feed than a year ago. This is the first time since mid-2023 that there have been consecutive months of cattle on feed over 150 days that are below a year ago in total number of head and percentage of these cattle. 

With the Mexico import prohibition in place until further notice, anticipated placements in 2025 are also cut. As a result, when compared to last month’s expectations, fed cattle slaughter is anticipated to decline further in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025. The outlook for 2025 beef production is lowered 615 million pounds from last month to 25.665 billion pounds, a 5-percent decline year over year.

Lower Cattle Imports and Fewer Slaughter Cattle Expected To Boost Cattle Prices 

In November, the weighted-average price for feeder steers weighing 750–800 pounds at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was $252.80 per hundredweight (cwt), a $1.39 decline from October. Prices jumped in the first 2 weeks of December—likely on the news of the ban on feeder cattle from Mexico— to a weighted average $268.42 per cwt, an increase of more than $15 from November. The fourth-quarter price forecast for feeder steers is $5 above last month at $259.00 per cwt.  The assumption of Mexican feeder cattle being absent from the U.S. supply chain in 2025 is reflected in next year’s price forecasts; the annual forecast is raised $15 from last month to $272.50 per cwt. The chart below shows weekly prices and quarterly price forecasts.