Brazil Citrus Semi-annual

Brazil Citrus Semi-annual

Report Highlights:
The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22 is forecast at 414.4 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 16.91 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 15 percent vis-à-vis the current season, supported by good weather conditions as of October 2021. Production costs are estimated at over R$ 33,000 per hectare (ha) or US$6,600/ha, up 27 percent compared to the previous crop, supported by high fertilizer, ag chemicals, and diesel prices. Total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent exports for MY 2021/22 are forecast to be relatively stable at 1.04 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 30,000 MT vis-à-vis MY 2020/21.

Production

PS&D Tables
The following table provides revised data for Sao Paulo and total Brazilian fresh orange production,supply, and distribution (PS&D) for Brazilian (BR) marketing years (MY, July-June) 2020/21, 2021/22,and 2022/23. The MY mentioned above are equivalent to U.S. MY 2019/2020, 2020/21, and 2021/22, respectively.

The Agricultural Trade Office (ATO) in Sao Paulo forecasts the total Brazilian orange crop for MY 2021/22 (July/June) at 414.4 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 16.91 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 15 percent compared to last crop (MY 2020/21). The commercial area of the state of Sao Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais should produce 317 MBx (12.93 MMT), an increase of 20 percent vis-à-vis the last year’s crop (263 MBx of oranges or 10,73 MMT). This projection is based on the Defense Fund for Citriculture’s (Fundecitrus) first citrus crop forecast, released last May. The forecast considers the following varieties: Hamlim, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, BRS Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, “Folha Murcha” Valencia, and Natal.

As reported by Fundecitrus, the upcoming crop will likely represent an improvement from two consecutive small crops, resulting in a discontinued biennial bearing cycle characterized by the yearly alternation of large and small crops. Stressed citrus groves recovered from below-average rainfall volumes in 2020 and up to September 2021 and frosts in June/July 2021 in some of the growing areas. Continued and well-distributed rainfall as of October 2021 triggered a steady second blossoming in most citrus areas during October/November. Note that the first blossoming was restricted to some colder growing areas in southern growing areas and irrigated fields. Overall, the first bloom should account for 27 percent of the crop, the second for 58 percent, and the third/fourth blooms for 14 percent of the crop. Most orange trees show a good fruit load and heavier oranges compared to last season, at the same development stage. Fundecitrus projects the orange weight at harvest at 158 grams, an increase of ten percent vis-à-vis the previous crop. The increase in the irrigated area from 31 percent in 2018 to 39 percent in 2022 has also supported the expected higher supply. The harvest season started in May in the Sao Paulo citrus belt and should become fully operational in June when all processing plants start operations.

The ATO/Sao Paulo slightly revised the estimate for the Brazilian orange crop for MY 2020/21 to 359.7 MBx (14.68 MMT), a drop of one MBx compared to the previous estimate, based on updated information from Fundecitrus and the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In April 2022, Fundecitrus released the final estimate for the 2021/22 orange crop (US MY 2020/21) for the Sao Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt at 262.97 MBx (10.73 MMT). The final figure was roughly 11 percent smaller than the initially expected volume released in May 2021, corresponding to a significant crop loss of 31.20 MBx.

Fundecitrus reported that although it was an “on-year” for the alternate-bearing when plants should yield a larger amount of fruit, a substantial decrease in rainfall volumes and intense frosts in the citrus fields prevented the growth of the fruit and contributed to an increased early fruit drop; therefore, reducing the number of oranges per tree during harvest. Production from other states for MY 2021/22 is projected at 97.4 MBx (3.97 MMT), up roughly one MBx from the previous MY 2020/21 (96.7 MBx or 3.95 MMT), according to information provided by the Brazilian Geography and Statistics Institute (IBGE).

In February 2022, the Sao Paulo State Institute of Agricultural Economics (IEA) released its first survey for the 2022/23 orange crop (equivalent to US MY 2021/22), forecasting 303.21 MBx (12.37 MMT), an increase of two percent vis-à-vis the previous crop (296.11 MBx or 12.08 MMT). Figures include production from both commercial and non-commercial areas and are based on data collected in February 2021. Note that IEA considers the entire state of Sao Paulo and all varieties of oranges. At thesame time, ATO/Sao Paulo estimates follow the citrus industry’s methodology, which takes into account the four major citrus varieties for juice processing and includes the commercial area of the state of Sao Paulo plus the western part of Minas Gerais. IEA reports that the orange tree inventory in Sao Paulo is estimated at 171.5 million trees (153.8 million bearing trees and 17.7 million non-bearing trees).

Area, Tree Inventory, and Yields

The Brazilian agricultural yield for the MY 2021/22 crop is forecast at 1.82 boxes/tree, an increase of 12 percent vis-à-vis the previous season (1.62 boxes/tree), as a consequence of favorable weather conditions as of October 2021, which supported blossoming and fruit setting in the Sao Paulo citrus belt.

Total Brazilian tree inventory for MY 2021/22 is projected at 262.3 million trees, an increase of 12.7 million from the previous season, mainly in the Sao Paulo commercial citrus belt. The area planted for oranges is projected at 614,100 hectares (ha), up 9,700 ha compared to the previous MY, as reported by the latest Fundecitrus inventory survey. The figure below shows orange production regions in the Sao Paulo state and Western Minas Gerais citrus belt, as reported by Fundecitrus in the 2022 citrus tree inventory survey.