Beef Balance Sheet

The February WASDE Beef Balance Sheet shows a significant increase in beef production, with output rising by 775 million pounds from January, bringing total 2025 production to 26.63 billion pounds. This increase is largely due to the resumption of cattle imports from Mexico, announced by APHIS on February 1, alongside new health protocols to control New World Screwworm. Additionally, the USDA’s January Cattle Report revised expectations, showing a larger 2024 calf crop and slower-than-expected declines in cattle outside feedlots, further supporting the rise in production.

With beef supply surpassing 32 billion pounds, this marks a 762-million-pound jump from January, reflecting both higher domestic production and steady imports at 4.77 billion pounds. The increase in total supply has been partially offset by stronger exports, which grew by 200 million pounds to 2.795 billion pounds, as global demand for U.S. beef remains robust. Despite these export gains, domestic consumption continues to rise, climbing 552 million pounds to 28.62 billion pounds, reinforcing strong consumer demand despite record prices.

The 2025 outlook for beef production remains elevated, as higher cattle placements and feedlot supplies help sustain the current pace of slaughter. While ending stocks increased slightly to 590 million pounds, the market continues to see strong demand absorption, reflected in a rise in per capita consumption to 59.1 pounds. The increase in beef supply and consumption suggests ample availability for consumers, but price trends will depend on continued demand strength, global trade dynamics, and the pace of feeder cattle placements into feedlots.