ASK CLARA: What percentage of total boxed beef sales do packers actually report in the USDA morning and afternoon boxed beef reports compared to the estimated total volume sold?

ASK CLARA:  What percentage of total boxed beef sales do packers actually report in the USDA morning and afternoon boxed beef reports compared to the estimated total volume sold?”

The amount of boxed beef sales that packers actually report versus the total volume of sales can vary significantly. Packers are only required to report negotiated and formula sales, but not all wholesale transactions are fully disclosed. Here’s the key difference:

Reported Sales vs. Total Sales

1. Reported Sales (Morning & Afternoon USDA Boxed Beef Reports)

• This includes negotiated sales (direct transactions) and formula sales (based on pre-arranged pricing agreements).

• Typically, USDA reports 120–150 loads per day.

• Boxed beef loads in the USDA report may only represent 20-30% of the actual total volume sold.

2. Total Boxed Beef Sales

• Includes all wholesale transactions, including unreported forward contracts, export sales, and private transactions.

• Industry estimates suggest the real volume of boxed beef transactions could be 3 to 5 times higher than reported.

• This is because a significant portion of beef is moved through long-term supply agreements and internal corporate transfers that do not get publicly reported.

Why is There a Difference?

• Market Transparency Rules: USDA reporting rules focus on transparency but do not cover every form of transaction.

• Corporate Agreements: Many large retail chains and foodservice providers buy beef through long-term supply agreements, bypassing the daily negotiated market.

• Exporter Activity: Export sales to countries like Japan, South Korea, and Mexico may not be fully captured in daily USDA reports.

• Packer Discretion: Some transactions remain unreported if they fall outside the required reporting categories.

Key Takeaway

While USDA reports give a snapshot of boxed beef sales, they only partially reflect the full scope of the wholesale market. If you’re tracking price trends, the reported numbers are useful, but they do not fully represent the total volume of boxed beef movement.

Disclaimer:

CLARA provides market insights, analysis, and data for informational purposes only. All content, including futures pricing, market trends, and forecasts, is not financial or trading advice. Market conditions are subject to rapid changes, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Users should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making trading or investment decisions. CLARA is not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on the information provided.