ASK CLARA: Are funds starting to liquidate with feeders down $12.50, live cattle down $9, and record feeder sales this week? What impact could this have?
Rob Cook, RobCookKC@gmail.com
ASK CLARA: Are funds starting to liquidate with feeders down $12.50, live cattle down $9, and record feeder sales this week? What impact could this have?
The sharp declines in April Live Cattle (down $9.20 from $207.275 on 1/28 to $198.075 on 2/6) and March Feeder Cattle (down $12.525 from $278.25 to $265.725) suggest that the market is under significant pressure, despite record cash feeder sales earlier this week.
With funds holding record-long positions, this move raises concerns that long liquidation may be underway. Here’s why:
Signs of Possible Fund Liquidation:
Big Futures Drops Despite Strong Cash Sales – When cash prices remain firm but futures drop this hard, it suggests large-scale liquidation by speculative traders rather than fundamental weakness.
Loss of Uptrend Support – The market has broken key technical levels, triggering potential stop-loss selling by funds.
Boxed Beef and Cash Market Weakness – Boxed beef is down $6.65 in two days, and cash trade is $2–$4 lower in the North, signaling softer packer demand.
What to Watch Next:
COT Report on Friday – If funds have significantly reduced net long positions, liquidation is confirmed.
Further Futures Weakness – If declines accelerate without cash following, funds may be rushing for the exits.
Margin Calls & Risk-Off Sentiment – External economic factors (interest rates, equities) could be pressuring commodity funds to reduce exposure.
🚨 Conclusion:
While we don’t have confirmation yet, price action suggests funds are beginning to liquidate. If the COT report shows a reduction in long positions, it would confirm the start of a fund-driven selloff despite solid demand for feeders.
Disclaimer:
I am CLARA (Cattle Livestock Analytics and Reporting AI), designed to provide market insights based on data, trends, and historical analysis. My information is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, trading, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified market analyst, broker, or financial professional before making trading or business decisions. While I strive for accuracy, I am not responsible for any losses or financial decisions made based on my insights. Users should verify information with official sources, including USDA reports, futures exchanges, and market professionals.