WASDE: Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook
For 2025, the beef forecast is raised on an increase in steer and heifer slaughter due to higher placements expected during the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as higher dressed weights...
WASDE: Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook
Red meat and poultry production for 2024 is lowered from last month due to lower beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production in the fourth quarter. Changes in the estimates reflect November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December. Egg production is lowered based on reductions of the layer flock as a result of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling reported in December.
For 2025, the beef forecast is raised on an increase in steer and heifer slaughter due to higher placements expected during the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as higher dressed weights. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2025 as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for addition to the breeding herd. Pork production is raised reflecting pig crop and farrowings data for the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025 published in the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Broiler production is lowered based on recent slaughter data indicating lower-than-previously expected weights. Turkey production is lowered for the first half of 2025 based on recent hatchery data and HPAI-related culling through early January. Egg production is also lowered due to reductions of the layer flock as a result of HPAI-related culling.
Beef import and export estimates for 2024 are raised on recent trade data. For 2025, beef imports are raised largely on continued strong shipments of beef from Oceania and South America. The 2025 beef export forecast is unchanged. Pork exports for 2024 are lowered based on recent trade data, but exports for 2025 are unchanged. Broiler exports in 2024 are lowered on recent trade data. Broiler exports for 2025 are also lowered on lower available supplies and strong price competition. Turkey exports are lowered for 2024 and 2025 on the recent trade data and lower domestic supplies.
Price estimates for 2024 are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2025, cattle prices are raised on recent prices and continued strong demand for cattle and beef. Hog prices are raised in 2025 supported by higher cattle and poultry prices. Broiler prices in 2025 are projected higher on lowered supplies and as stronger prices in late 2024 are expected to carry over into 2025. Turkey prices for 2025 are lowered with lower prices in late 2024 carrying over into 2025. Egg prices for 2025 are raised on recent HPAI outbreaks’ impacts on recent prices during the first quarter, as well as the implications on the flock size for the remainder of 2025.
Milk production for 2024 is lowered from last month, with lower milk cow inventories and lower expected milk per cow based on the most recent Milk Production report. The 2025 production forecast is also lowered due to slower growth in output per cow. USDA’s Cattle report will provide an indication of producer intentions for retaining dairy heifers for addition to the milking herd.
Fat basis imports for 2024 are higher based on recent trade data. Skim-solids basis imports for 2024 are unchanged. Fat basis imports for 2025 are raised on higher expected cheese and butter imports. Skim-solid basis imports for 2025 are lowered based on lower expected casein and milk protein concentrate. Exports on a fat basis are higher for both 2024 and 2025 on recent trade data and higher expected shipments of butter and cheese due to the U.S. price competitiveness of butter and cheese. Exports on a skim-solids basis are lowered for both 2024 and 2025 on recent trade data and less competitive U.S. nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey.
For 2024, product and Class price estimates are adjusted to reflect reported prices. For 2025, prices for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are all expected to be higher due to less milk production and supportive demand. The Class III price is raised, with higher cheese and whey prices. Class IV prices are also raised, due to higher butter and NDM price forecasts. The 2024 all milk price forecast is lowered to $22.60 per cwt and the 2025 all milk price is raised to $23.05 per cwt.