WASDE: Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook

Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2023 is forecast below 2022, as lower beef production more than offsets higher pork and poultry production.

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WASDE:   Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook

Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2023 is forecast below 2022, as lower beef production more than offsets higher pork and poultry production.  For 2023, beef production is forecast lower with expected declines in both fed and non-fed cattle supplies.  Pork production is forecast higher with increased farrowings and continued growth in productivity.  Higher forecast broiler production reflects moderating feed costs and improved productivity.  Turkey production is projected higher as the sector recovers from the 2022 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks.  Egg production is likewise forecast higher with post-HPAI flock rebuilding.

Total red meat and poultry production forecasts for 2022 are raised from last month. Higher beef and broiler production more than offset a reduction in pork and turkey production.  Beef production is raised, with more cattle placed in feedlots sooner than normally expected due to drought conditions, supporting higher annual fed cattle slaughter.  Additionally, cow slaughter is forecast higher. Pork production is reduced on lighter expected carcass weights. Based on recent slaughter and hatchery data, the broiler production forecast is raised while the turkey production forecast is lowered. Egg production is lowered on reduced expected laying flocks.

For 2023, beef exports are down from 2022 on lower beef production and higher prices. Beef imports are lower on tight global supplies. Pork imports are slightly higher compared to 2022 and exports are slightly lower. Broiler exports are forecast higher on increased production and lower prices, and turkey exports are forecast slightly higher on increased supplies and a resumption of pre-HPAI trade patterns.

For 2022, beef and broiler exports are raised while pork and turkey exports are lowered based on recent trade data.

For 2023, cattle prices are forecast above 2022 on tighter supplies.  Hog, broiler, and turkey prices are forecast lower with increased production.  The egg price is forecast lower with higher expected production.

The 2022 cattle price forecast is raised on recent data and tighter expected fed cattle supplies later in the year.  Hog prices are lowered on prices to date and weaker demand, while broiler and turkey prices are raised on stronger prices to date and continued demand strength.

Milk production for 2023 is forecast above 2022 driven by gains in milk per cow, with the milk cow herd expected to average close to 2022 levels.  Exports on a fat basis are forecast lower, largely on lower expected butter sales.  On a skim-solids basis, exports are forecast higher with gains expected in cheese, skim milk powder, and whey sales.  Imports are projected to grow on a skim-solids basis with higher imports of a number of dairy products, but are unchanged on a fat basis. The Class III price is forecast lower on weaker cheese and whey prices.  The Class IV price is forecast lower as well, with projections lower than 2022 for butter and non-fat dry milk.  The 2023 all milk price is forecast at $23.55 per cwt.

The 2022 milk production forecast is raised from the previous month, with higher milk cow inventories more than offsetting slower growth in milk per cow. Fat-basis exports are raised from the previous month mainly on stronger butter and cheese shipments. The skim-solids basis export forecast is lowered on weaker skim milk powder and whey exports. Fat basis and skim-solids basis import forecasts are raised from last month on higher expected imports of a number of dairy-containing products.  Cheese and butter prices are raised from the previous month on strong demand, but non-fat dry milk and whey prices are lowered.  Both Class III and Class IV are lowered. The 2022 all milk price is forecast at $25.75.