WASDE: Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook

WASDE:   Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook

The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2025 is lowered from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and reduced cow slaughter for the remainder of the year. Pork production is unchanged from the previous month. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on June 26, will provide indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early 2026. Broiler production is raised on recent production and hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered on recent hatchery data. Egg production is lowered on recent layer inventory data, as well as recent discoveries of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in commercial laying flocks.

For 2026, red meat and poultry production is raised on higher beef and turkey production. Beef production is raised primarily on higher feedlot placements in the second half of 2025 and early 2026, which are expected to result in higher steer and heifer slaughter for 2026. Turkey production is raised on improved returns. The pork and broiler production forecasts are unchanged.

The beef export forecast for 2025 is raised on recent trade data and continued strong demand from key export markets. The beef import forecast is also raised on strong imports from Oceania and South America, as well as robust domestic demand for lean processing beef. The pork export forecast is reduced for 2025 on recent trade data and increased export competition. For 2026, pork exports are also reduced on continued export competition. The 2025 broiler export forecast is raised based on recent trade data indicating higher shipments in the second quarter. The broiler export forecast for 2026 is unchanged. The turkey export forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are lowered as higher U.S. prices are expected to make exports less competitive in destination markets.

Cattle price forecasts for 2025 are raised on recent price strength and continued demand for cattle. The increased price forecasts are carried over into 2026 as well. Hog price forecasts are raised for 2025, based on recent prices, as well as relatively tight pork inventories and increased cattle prices supporting hog demand. Raised hog price forecasts carry over into early 2026. Broiler price forecasts are raised for the second half of 2025 and into 2026, supported by higher prices of competing animal proteins. Turkey price forecasts are also raised for 2025 and 2026 based on recent price strength. The egg price forecast for 2025 is lowered slightly for the third quarter based on recent prices, but the price forecast for 2026 is unchanged.

Milk production forecasts are raised for both 2025 and 2026. Based on the latest Milk Production report, cow inventories are raised for 2025 and milk per cow is raised for both 2025 and 2026.

For 2025 and 2026, commercial exports forecasts are raised on a fat basis, primarily due to competitively priced butter exports, as well as higher cheese and fluid product exports. On a skim solids basis, export forecasts are reduced on lower shipments of nonfat dry milk (NDM). Import forecasts for 2025 are raised on both a fat basis and skim-solids basis. For 2026, imports are raised on a skim-solids basis, but unchanged on a fat basis.

For 2025, butter, cheese, whey, and NDM price forecasts are raised from the previous month on recent price strength. The all milk price forecast is raised to $21.95 per cwt. For 2026, butter, cheese, and whey price forecasts are raised as strong demand is expected to absorb the growth in milk production. NDM prices are unchanged from the previous month. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised as well. The all milk price forecast for 2026 is $21.30 per cwt.