WASDE: Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook
For 2024, red meat and poultry production is raised from last month. Beef production is raised due to heavier weights and higher slaughter...
WASDE: Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook
For 2024, red meat and poultry production is raised from last month. Beef production is raised due to heavier weights and higher slaughter. Pork production is raised on higher hog slaughter more than offsetting a slight decline in weights. The current outlook for hog slaughter in 2024 reflects the information provided in the March 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that showed higher pig crops than previously reported for 2023 and continued strong growth in pigs per litter in early 2024. Broiler production is raised based on recent production and hatchery data, as well as a continuing trend of heavier bird weights. Turkey production is raised for the first quarter on recent production and hatchery data. Egg production is lowered based on recent discoveries of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in commercial laying flocks.
Beef exports are raised for 2024 based on recent trade data. Pork exports are also raised based on strong exports reported through the first two months of the year. Larger U.S. pork supplies will support exports. Broiler exports are lowered based on recent trade data and expectations that higher prices may affect trade to a number of price sensitive markets. Turkey exports are unchanged. Egg exports are raised slightly based on recent trade data.
Cattle prices are raised for the year based on recent data and expected strength in demand. Hog prices are also raised based on reported data and stronger-than-expected demand. Broiler prices are raised based on recent price strength carrying into the rest of the year. Turkey prices are lowered based on latest reported data and continued signs of relatively weak demand. Egg prices are raised due to recent prices and expectations of tighter supplies.
The milk production forecast for 2024 is lowered on slower expected growth in milk per cow; cow numbers are unchanged from last month. Fat basis imports for 2024 are raised on higher expected butter and cheese imports. Skim-solids basis imports are raised for a number of dairy products. Fat basis exports are raised on strong international demand for butter and price competitiveness of U.S. cheese. Skim-solids basis exports are lowered as fewer expected shipments of lactose and whey products more than offset higher shipments of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and cheese.
Butter prices for 2024 are raised on observed prices and continued strength in demand. Cheese, NDM, and whey prices are all lowered on recent prices. Class III prices are lowered due to lower cheese and whey price forecasts. Class IV prices are raised due to higher butter prices more than offsetting lower NDM prices. The all milk price for 2024 is projected lower at $20.90 per cwt.