U.S. Cattle Report - Thursday, July 10th

🔥 Cattle Imports Down 397,000 Head; August Feeder Futures Up $42 Since April 🔥

Through May 2025, total U.S. cattle imports fell to 565,077 head, down 397,129 head or 41.3% from 962,206 during the same period in 2024. Imports from Mexico dropped by 390,509 head, a 63.5% decline, while Canadian imports slipped by just 6,620 head, or 1.9%. Since April 8, August feeder cattle futures have climbed from $277.60 to $320.48 as of July 9, a gain of $42.88. The contract has moved higher in 9 of the last 10 sessions, including a $1.35 increase on July 9.

August Feeder Cattle futures rose $0.80 on Thursday to close at $321.275, marking gains in 10 of the last 11 trading sessions. Since June 24, when the contract settled at $302.25, it has rallied a total of $19.03. The advance has been driven by a series of strong daily moves, including notable gains of $4.60 on June 27, $4.23 on July 7, and $5.40 on July 8, underscoring the strength and momentum behind the feeder cattle market.

In the Western Cornbelt, a few early live purchases were noted at $235.00, though not enough to establish a full market test. Elsewhere, trade activity was mostly inactive across the Texas Panhandle, Kansas, and Nebraska, with moderate demand reported. The most recent established prices from last week remain the reference: $224.00 in the Texas Panhandle, $224.00–$225.00 in Kansas, $230.00–$232.00 live and $368.00 dressed in Nebraska, and $230.00–$234.00 live and $368.00 dressed in the Western Cornbelt.

USDA reported 115,000 head of cattle slaughtered on Thursday, up from 112,000 the previous week but down from 122,678 a year ago. Week-to-date (WTD) slaughter stands at 464,000, compared to 472,000 last week and 479,228 during the same week in 2024. Year-to-date (YTD) cattle slaughter totals 15,515,803, down 6.4% from 16,576,572 at this point in 2024.

Boxed beef prices continued to slide on Thursday, July 10, 2025, with the Choice cutout dropping $1.79 to $384.66, and Select falling $2.41 to $370.86. The Choice-Select spread widened slightly to $13.80, while total loads slowed to 69, down from 143 the previous day. Choice has now declined $11.83 from its recent high of $396.49 on June 27. Most primal values were steady to slightly weaker, with Rib holding at $500.02, Chuck at $324.27, Round at $326.30, and Loin slipping to $518.51. Brisket, Plate, and Flank were mostly steady, ending at $353.46, $318.50, and $251.83, respectively.

Beef export sales totaled 11,600 metric tons, up 1% from the previous week but down 12% from the prior four-week average. In comparison, the average since May stands at 12,200 MT, while the 2025 year-to-date average is 13,200 MT, highlighting a softer stretch in recent export demand. The lowest weekly total so far in 2025 remains 7,642 MT, recorded the week of May 1.

The USDA has announced the immediate re-closure of southern ports of entry to livestock from Mexico following the confirmed detection of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Ixhuatlán de Madero, Veracruz. The new case—located just 370 miles south of the U.S. border and well north of Mexico’s sterile fly dispersal zone—has raised serious concerns about the accuracy and reliability of prior reports from Mexican officials. This development undermines the USDA’s phased reopening plan that began July 7, 2025, and was scheduled to expand through September 15. In response, Secretary Rollins has ordered an immediate halt to livestock trade, citing the need to protect U.S. livestock health and the national food supply.

U.S. drought coverage stands at 48.08%, down slightly from 48.67% last week and up from 48.18% a year ago. Recent short-term precipitation deficits, worsening soil moisture, and crop stress prompted 1-category degradations across parts of northern Illinois, Indiana, western Ohio, northwestern Kentucky, and northwestern Missouri. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall brought 1-category improvements to areas in western and eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, and northern Minnesota. In the High Plains, widespread rain led to improvements across much of the Dakotas, Nebraska, eastern Colorado, and Wyoming, while northeastern North Dakota saw drought conditions expand due to continued dryness and heat. Abnormal dryness was introduced in eastern Kansas, and minor improvements were made in southwestern Colorado based on precipitation and drought indicator support.

🔥 U.S. Beef Imports Double Exports as Shipments to China See Sharpest Decline 🔥

U.S. beef exports totaled 1.18 billion pounds from January through May 2025, down 5.71% from the 1.25 billion pounds shipped during the same period last year. Among major trading partners, South Korea led all buyers with 289.2 million pounds, a 9.69% increase from 2024. Japan followed closely at 276.8 million pounds, virtually steady with a 0.27% decline. Exports to China fell sharply by 32.61% to 135.8 million pounds — the largest loss among the top 10 export destinations. Shipments to Mexico dropped 9.67% to 129.6 million pounds, while Canada rounded out the top five at 95.8 million pounds, down 4.80%. With beef imports already at 2.51 billion pounds through May, U.S. imports have more than doubled exports — exceeding them by over 1.33 billion pounds.

U.S. Beef Exports By Country (Jan - May)


 

Rob Cook, NationalBeefWire.com